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Who will win the 2024 Rising Star?
Oliver Dempsey is now the dead favourite to win the Rising Star, after George Wardlaw is missing some footy with another concussion.
Dempsey has been electric for Geelong, kicking multiple bags of 3 and he is averaged 17.6 disposals this year, and 0.9 goals for the year.
George Wardlaw is one of the favourites to take out the Rising Star, after in Round 12 top favourites Harley Reid and Sam Darcy both received suspensions causing them to be ineligible for the award.
Harley Reid was a clear favourite paying at most 1.20, but Wardlaw wasn't far off the mark at the start of the year. Wardlaw has been a solid contributor for North all year, and has cemented a spot in the team, as has other rising star favourite Colby McKercher.
A tough-nut in the making, Wardlaw averaged 19.1 disposals, and 9.6 of them as contested possessions per game this year. He is ranked 45 for this important stat - which is higher than Errol Gulden, Zach Merrett and Chad Warner. Dempsey, is also only ranked 99 for this stat.
Why Colby McKercher Should Win
Colby McKercher is a bit of an outsider to win the Rising Star, but I would argue he has had the best season out of the lot, and the fact that it is actually his first year is also in his favour as an actual Rising Star (compared to Dempsey, Wardlaw and Darcy).
Colby is averaging 23.8 disposals a game in his first year, in a team that finished second last. In Nick Daicos' first year of AFL, he averaged 25.8, but in a much better team than the current day Kangaroos.
If we go by Supercoach ratings, McKercher has the most impressive average out of all the highly rated players who were eligible for the Rising Star at the beginning of the year, including Harley Reid and Sam Darcy.
AFL Player | Supercoach Score* |
Colby McKercher (North Melbourne) | 88.50 |
George Wardlaw (North Melbourne) | 85.61 |
Harley Reid (West Coast) | 80.55 |
Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs) | 79.25 |
Oliver Dempsey (Geelong) | 75.74 |
Kai Lohmann (Brisbane) | 70.48 |
Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) | 65.30 |
Caleb Windsor (Melbourne) | 59.63 |
*Average Supercoach points for the 2024 AFL Season, with a minimum of 15 games. Source Footywire.
Previous Rising Star & SuperCoach Rankings
Year | Rising Star Rankings | Supercoach Rankings |
2024 | TBC | 1. C. McKercher - 88.50 2. G. Wardlaw - 85.61 3. H. Reid - 80.55 4. S. Darcy - 79.25 5. O. Dempsey - 75.74 |
2023 | 1. H. Sheezel 2. W. Ashcroft 3. M. Owens | 1. H. Sheezel - 99.52 2. W. Ashcroft - 84.50 3. M. Owens - 79.57 |
2022 | 1. N. Daicos 2. S. De Koning 3. J. Newcombe | 1. N. Daicos - 90.72 2. J. Newcombe - 86.86 3. N. Martin - 79.19 |
2021 | 1. L. Jackson 2. T. Green 3. M. Georgiades | 1. T. Green - 77.22 2. E. Gulden - 75.83 3. L. Jackson - 72.12 |
2020 | 1. C. Serong 2. N. Anderson 3. M. King | 1. C. Serong - 81.07 2. N. Anderson - 76.59 3. I. Rankine - 69.17 |
2019 | 1. S. Walsh 2. C. Rozee 3. S. Stack | 1. S. Walsh - 86.91 2. S. Stack - 80.12 3. C. Rozee - 77.73 |
Source - Footywire. Minimum 20 games played (15 in 2020), ranked as highest average Supercoach points across the whole season.
Rising Star and Supercoach Points Relevance
Key Takeaways
- In four of the last 5 AFL seasons, the player eligible for the Rising Star had the highest Supercoach average points, compared to other players voted.
- Nick Daicos' first year of AFL, he had an average rating of 90.7 Supercoach for the year when he won the Rising Star, which was higher than any of the other nominations
- As was Harry Sheezel in 2023, who had a Supercoach rating of 99.5.
- Luke Jackson won the rising star in 2021, but was third in Supercoach rankings, behind Tom Green and Errol Gulden.
Conclusion
Supercoach is a great way of seeing how a player is going, by more than disposals or goals. It also takes way more into consideration including contested possessions, disposal efficiency, one percenters, etc. - and weighs different statistics in how important they are. Going by the table above, it is quite easy to see the relevance for how well a player has turned out to be, compared to how well their SuperCoach score was in their first year (or main Rising Star eligibility year).
While Luke Jackson is the outlier for player who did not finish at the top of the Supercoach average - it could very easily be argued that Tom Green and Errol Gulden, who finished above him, have turned out to be better stars of the game. Although Jackson plays a different role, Gulden and Green are potential future Brownlow winners at this rate, and Jackson is not mentioned anywhere near the running.
2024 Historical Rising Star Tips
- Before Opening Round Tip
Our tip for the Rising Star before Opening Round was for Sam Darcy for 20.00 at BetM
29/2/2024
"No idea what Luke has fed him his whole life, but we think 2024 will finally be Sam's breakout year. As we can see in the Top 5 Rising Stars and their Draft Pick number data below, higher drafted players (as in closer to number one) and older players have had much more success in winning the Rising Star.
On paper, Sam Darcy is looking like a very strong candidate for the Rising Star, as he was a number 2 draft pick back in 2021, and he has had a few years exposure in the highest level of the game to possibly be an impacting player. These strong combining factors have proven a 50% Rising Star win ratio, from our AFL Rising Star prediction.
Besides spending a lot of time on the sidelines and the two's due to injury - Darcy has had the misfortune of playing in a team where there is a surplus of players with the same skillset of him, and that are some of the best in the league, including Tim English (the 2023 All-Australian ruckman) and Aaron Naughton (four times in a row in the 22 Under 22 team up forward).
Darcy has proven dominant (unstoppable even) as a junior and also in the VFL in these positions. He has had a few years now to mature and get the body up to the speed of an AFL big man, and by learning from some of the best in the current game - as soon as he gets a bit more AFL air time, we think he'll be another key part to the Western Bulldogs.
Before a game of footy can be seen for the year - at 20.00, he is definitely worth having a punt on".
Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert
- Round 4 Tip
Our tip for the Rising Star before Round 4 was for Sam Darcy for 18.00 at Colossalbet
3/4/2024
"It is still too early in the year to form a solid opinion on who will win the Rising Star, but going on paper I'm sticking with my early bet of Sam Darcy. No player so far has stood out in my eyes, Harley Reid definitely looks like he will be a gun, but is yet to show any potential.
We chose Sam Darcy as our pick before the start of the season due to the fact that he has been involved in the game for a few years, and has had time to mature as a player. All the while knowing that he was a gun junior and was picked at #2. This year he has been a great support to Tim English, has been getting a good amount of hit-outs, and has been managing to hit the scoreboard more often.
With English's contract running out at the end of the year and he'll be looking at a very big number - Bevo might want to give Sam even more game time to mature more".
Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert
- Round 11 Tip
Our tip for the Rising Star before Round 4 was for Sam Darcy for 10.00 at BlueBet
20/5/2024
"Harley Reid has pretty much guaranteed the Rising Star award, however I wouldn't recommend putting a 1.25 bet on him considering he can get injured at any moment.
We've been on Sam Darcy from before the season, which has only gotten better as a bet as the year has progressed (besides Reid). He has been more consistent in more games than Harley has (as of Round 11), however he is not capable of doing the things Harley is (nor is anyone but Judd).
If this is taken into account and Darcy begins averaging 3+ goals a game, there is a chance he could steal it from Reid. Otherwise, I think he is a lock for any bookie that offers Rising Star bet without Reid".
Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert
- Round 16 Tip
Our tip for the Rising Star before Round 16 was for George Wardlaw for 1.62 at Unibet
24/6/24
"Oh boy, this event got turned on it's head after the suspension of Harley Reid and Sam Darcy in the same week. If only Harley was pinned, we would've been very happy as we backed Sam.
Enter Wardlaw, pretty much skating to victory like Bradbury, but that's not to deter from his season so far. The North midfield is looking to be elite in the years to come and Wardlaw has cemented himself in there.
Wardlaw is averaging 9.5 contested possessions a game, more than that of Harley Reid (9.2). He is also besting Reid in Supercoach score (89 and 85 averages respectively). Reid does have him on score involvements just though (5.00 to 4.92).
Regardless, Reid is out of the running and other front runners Darcy Wilson and Oliver Dempsey are not even close to Wardlaw's stats. Only reason I wouldn't be putting the house on Wardlaw, is if he gets himself suspended".
Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert
2024 Rising Star Nominations
Round | Player | Draft Pick |
Opening Round | M. Roberts | #34 |
1 | O. Dempsey | #15 |
2 | G. Wardlaw | #4 |
3 | H. Gallagher | #39 |
4 | S. Darcy | #2 |
5 | H. Reid | #1 |
6 | D. Wilson | #18 |
7 | J. Rodgers | #14 |
8 | C. Windsor | #7 |
9 | C. McKercher | #2 |
10 | K. Lohmann | #20 |
11 | H. Harrison | #52 |
12 | B. Uwland | #26 RD |
13 | L. Nankervis | #2 SSP |
14 | H. Thomas | #59 |
15 | L. Morris | #31 |
16 | W. Graham | #26 |
17 | D. Jones | #21 |
18 | L. Humphries | #63 |
19 | N. Watson | #5 |
20 | J. Draper | Cat B. RD |
21 | J. Archer | #59 |
22 | N. Caddy | #10 |
23 | C. Dear | #56 |
24 | L. Evans | #12 |
*RD (Rookie Draft) - Drafted as a player outside of each teams 38-man list, and cannot play unless elevated to senior list (to replace a retired player or someone with a long term injury).
**SSP (Pre-Season Supplemental Selection Period) - Allows clubs to give the opportunity to invite players to train with them over the off-season, with the potential to be added to their rookie list.
Top 5 Rising Stars and what pick they were drafted
The table below shows the the players who finished in the top 5 for the Rising Star each year for the past 10 years, and where they were drafted in the year previous (or previous year again, if mentioned).
Year | Rising Star Position | Draft Number |
2023 | 1. H. Sheezel 2. W. Ashcroft 3. M. Owens 4. J. Amiss 5. D. Wilmot | #3 #2 #3 (2021) #8 (2021) #16 (2021) |
2022 | 1. N. Daicos 2. S. De Koning 3. J. Newcombe 4. J. Ginnivan 5. N. Martin | #4 #19 (2019) #2 #13 (RD*) SSP** |
2021 | 1. L. Jackson 2. T. Green 3. M. Georgiades 4. J. McInerney 5. E. Gulden | #3 (2019) #10 (2019) #18 (2019) #44 (2018) #32 |
2020 | 1. C. Serong 2. N. Anderson 3. M. King 4. I. Rankine 5. W. Day | #8 #2 #4 (2018) #3 (2018) #13 |
2019 | 1. S.Walsh 2. C. Rozee 3. S. Stack 4. B. Smith 4. J. Clark 5. G. Miers | #1 #5 PSS #7 #15 #57 (2017) |
2018 | 1. J. Stephenson 2. T. Doedee 3. A. Witherden 4. J. Higgins 5. O. Florent 5. J. Henry | #6 #17 (2015) #23 (2016) #17 #11 (2016) #16 (2016 RD) |
2017 | 1. A. McGrath 2. R. Burton 3. S. Powell-Pepper 4. C. Curnow 5. E. Hipwood | #1 #19 (2015) #18 #12 (2015) #14 (2015) |
2016 | 1. C. Mills 2. C. Daniel 3. J. Weitering 4. D. Parish 5. D. Moore | #3 #46 (2014) #1 #5 #9 (2014) |
2015 | 1. J. Hogan 2. P. Cripps 3. D. Sheed 4. I. Heeney 5. A. Brayshaw | #2 (MD***) #13 (2013) #11 (2013) #18 #3 |
2014 | 1. L. Taylor 2. M. Bontempelli 3. L. McDonald 4. J. Aish 5. K. Kolodjashnij | #28 #4 #8 #7 #5 |
*RD (Rookie Draft) - Drafted as a player outside of each teams 38-man list, and cannot play unless elevated to senior list (to replace a retired player or someone with a long term injury).
**SSP (Pre-Season Supplemental Selection Period) - Allows clubs to give the opportunity to invite players to train with them over the off-season, with the potential to be added to their rookie list.
***MD (Mini-Draft) - As part of their entry into the AFL, GWS were allocated up to four selections in a mini-draft, which they could recruit 17 year olds who were not eligible for the current years draft, which they could later trade .
Predictions for AFL Rising Star
AFL number one draft picks are judged incredibly harshly throughout their career. These stats above, actually tell a good story and reaffirm that the teams selection committees' generally know what they are talking about, as the higher a player is drafted, the better they have performed in the Rising Star.
In the past 10 years, and out of the 52 players who finished in the Top 5 for the Rising Star:
- 26 players who polled in the top 5, were a top 10 draft pick (50% of players)
- 18 of these players, were a top 5 draft pick (35% of players)
- 5 players who won the Rising Star, were a top 3 draft pick (50%)
- 2x number 1 draft picks, won the Rising Star (20%)
- 21 players polled in the top 5, who were a second or third year player (40%)
While it's too early to tell who will poll well, we can see what players historically have good odds, for what their draft spot says about them.
Take Harley Reid for example. History tells us there is a 20% chance he should win. Without him playing a game of AFL football, if he was paying over 5.00, we think that would be a decent bet - especially because he looks like a fair jet in the under's, and there'll definitely be a place for him to shine at West Coast.
However, at 3.75, that is not a good bet at this point in time.
Older Players
It is also interesting (yet not really surprising), that the older young players poll well in the Rising Star, due to more exposure in the game, and their bodies filling out a bit more. Although there has only been one second year player to win the Rising Star in the past 10 years (2021 Luke Jackson), if we go back a few more years - in 2012 Daniel Talia won the Rising Star after being drafted three years prior, and Dan Hannebery won it in 2010, after being drafted two years before that.
If we count Jaeger O'Meara (2013 winner) and Jesse Hogan (2015 winner) - both players were in the mini draft two years prior, giving them the edge of AFL exposure that the other older players received.
To make it easier to swallow all of this - since 2010-2023, 5 players were drafted before the year previous, and have won the Rising Star (36%).
2 of the 4 players (50%) from the Mini-Draft, won the AFL Rising Star. It's pretty well accepted that the Mini-Draft players would have gone probably in picks 1 and 2, for their respective year drafts. The Mini-Draftees therefore were likely high picks, but also had the experience playing (or training at least) with the big boys for an extra year, to give them an extra edge.
With all this information - this is why former #2 pick (2021) Sam Darcy was our AFL Rising Star pick before the start of the season.
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FAQ
No. A player can only be nominated once per season for the rising star. A suspended player can be nominated, but they are not eligible to win the award.
To be eligible for the AFL Rising Star, a player must be under 21 years of age, as of the 1st of January 2024, and played 10 or less games before the start of the 2024 AFL Season.
One player is chosen for each round of the home-and-away AFL season to be the Rising Star for that week.
At the end of the season, a panel of experts vote between all players who received a nomination to determine the winner.
The AFL Rising Star Award is given to the the player who has been voted as the best young and new player in the AFL, for that given year.
| Year | Player | Club |
| 2023 | Harry Sheezel | NM |
| 2022 | Nick Daicos | COLL |
| 2021 | Luke Jackson | MELB |
| 2020 | Caleb Serong | FRE |
| 2019 | Sam Walsh | CARL |
| 2018 | Jaidyn Stephenson | COLL |
| 2017 | Andrew McGrath | ESS |
| 2016 | Callum Mills | SYD |
| 2015 | Jesse Hogan | MELB |
| 2014 | Lewis Taylor | BL |
| 2013 | Jaeger O'Meara | GCFC |
| 2012 | Daniel Talia | ADEL |
| 2011 | Dyson Heppell | ESS |
| 2010 | Daniel Hannebery | SYD |
| 2009 | Daniel Rich | BL |
| 2008 | Rhys Palmer | FRE |
| 2007 | Joel Selwood | GEEL |
| 2006 | Danyle Pearce | PORT |
| 2005 | Brett Deledio | RICH |
| 2004 | Jared Rivers | MELB |
| 2003 | Sam Mitchell | HAW |
| 2002 | Nick Riewoldt | STK |
| 2001 | Justin Koschitzke | STK |
| 2000 | Paul Hasleby | FRE |
| 1999 | Adam Goodes | SYD |
| 1998 | Byron Pickett | NMFC |
| 1997 | Michael Wilson | PORT |
| 1996 | Ben Cousins | WCE |
| 1995 | Nick Holland | HAW |
| 1994 | Chris Scott | BL |
| 1993 | Nathan Buckley | BL |
There have been 31 AFL players to win the Rising Star since its inception in 1993. The most recent in 2023 was Harry Sheezel.
There have been four players that have won the Rising Star, that have gone on to win a Brownlow since 1993, which are Nathan Buckley, Ben Cousins, Adam Goodes and Sam Mitchell.
Previous AFL Rising Stars' Nick Daicos and Sam Walsh, are two of the top three favourites to win the 2024 AFL Brownlow Medal.
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