AFL Rising Star Betting Odds
Article

AFL Rising Star Betting Odds, Tips & Insights 2024

Jun 17, 2024

Who will win the 2024 AFL Rising Star? Our experts investigate the best youngsters in the great game!

AFL Rising Star Odds

AFL Player
Best Odds Found
George Wardlaw
(North Melbourne)
2.20 at
Neds
Darcy Wilson
(St Kilda)
8.00 at
BlueBet
Oliver Dempsey
(Geelong)
9.00 at
PlayUp
Colby McKercher
(North Melbourne
)
10.00 at
BetM
Caleb Windsor
(Melbourne)
11.00 at
Bet Right
Kai Lohmann
(Brisbane)
17.00 at
Bet Right
Ryley Sanders
(Western Bulldogs)
19.00 at
BetM
Bodhi Uwland
(Gold Coast)
26.00 at
Unibet

We compare the best odds for each player across different betting sites. Last updated 17/6/24

Who will win the 2024 Rising Star?

George Wardlaw is now the favourite to take out the Rising Star, after in Round 12 top favourites Harley Reid and Sam Darcy both received suspensions causing them to be ineligible for the award.

Harley Reid was a clear favourite paying at most 1.20, but Wardlaw wasn't far off the mark at the start of the year. Wardlaw has been a solid contributor for North all year, and has cemented a spot in the team, as has other rising star favourite Colby McKercher. So either way, there is a good chance the Kangaroos will have an official rising star on their hands.

Best odds for George Wardlaw are 2.20 at Neds

2024 Historical Rising Star Tips

Before Opening Round Tip

Our tip for the Rising Star before Opening Round was for Sam Darcy for 20.00 at BetM
29/2/2024

"No idea what Luke has fed him his whole life, but we think 2024 will finally be Sam's breakout year. As we can see in the Top 5 Rising Stars and their Draft Pick number data below, higher drafted players (as in closer to number one) and older players have had much more success in winning the Rising Star.

On paper, Sam Darcy is looking like a very strong candidate for the Rising Star, as he was a number 2 draft pick back in 2021, and he has had a few years exposure in the highest level of the game to possibly be an impacting player. These strong combining factors have proven a 50% Rising Star win ratio, from our AFL Rising Star prediction.

Besides spending a lot of time on the sidelines and the two's due to injury - Darcy has had the misfortune of playing in a team where there is a surplus of players with the same skillset of him, and that are some of the best in the league, including Tim English (the 2023 All-Australian ruckman) and Aaron Naughton (four times in a row in the 22 Under 22 team up forward).

Darcy has proven dominant (unstoppable even) as a junior and also in the VFL in these positions. He has had a few years now to mature and get the body up to the speed of an AFL big man, and by learning from some of the best in the current game - as soon as he gets a bit more AFL air time, we think he'll be another key part to the Western Bulldogs.

Before a game of footy can be seen for the year - at 20.00, he is definitely worth having a punt on".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip

Our tip for the Rising Star before Round 4 was for Sam Darcy for 18.00 at Colossalbet

3/4/2024

"It is still too early in the year to form a solid opinion on who will win the Rising Star, but going on paper I'm sticking with my early bet of Sam Darcy. No player so far has stood out in my eyes, Harley Reid definitely looks like he will be a gun, but is yet to show any potential.

We chose Sam Darcy as our pick before the start of the season due to the fact that he has been involved in the game for a few years, and has had time to mature as a player. All the while knowing that he was a gun junior and was picked at #2. This year he has been a great support to Tim English, has been getting a good amount of hit-outs, and has been managing to hit the scoreboard more often.

With English's contract running out at the end of the year and he'll be looking at a very big number - Bevo might want to give Sam even more game time to mature more".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 11 Tip

Our tip for the Rising Star before Round 4 was for Sam Darcy for 10.00 at BlueBet

20/5/2024

"Harley Reid has pretty much guaranteed the Rising Star award, however I wouldn't recommend putting a 1.25 bet on him considering he can get injured at any moment.

We've been on Sam Darcy from before the season, which has only gotten better as a bet as the year has progressed (besides Reid). He has been more consistent in more games than Harley has (as of Round 11), however he is not capable of doing the things Harley is (nor is anyone but Judd).

If this is taken into account and Darcy begins averaging 3+ goals a game, there is a chance he could steal it from Reid. Otherwise, I think he is a lock for any bookie that offers Rising Star bet without Reid".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 16 Tip

We will give this updated Rising Star Tip before Round 16.

Round 24 Tip

We will give this updated Rising Star Tip before Round 24.

2024 Rising Star Nominations

Round
Player
Draft Pick
Opening Round
M. Roberts
#34
1
O. Dempsey
#15
2
G. Wardlaw
#4
3
H. Gallagher
#39
4
S. Darcy
#2
5
H. Reid
#1
6
D. Wilson
#18
7
J. Rodgers
#14
8
C. Windsor
#7
9
C. McKercher
#2
10
K. Lohmann
#20
11
H. Harrison
#52
12
B. Uwland
#26 RD
13
L. Nankervis
#2 SSP

*RD (Rookie Draft) - Drafted as a player outside of each teams 38-man list, and cannot play unless elevated to senior list (to replace a retired player or someone with a long term injury).
**SSP (Pre-Season Supplemental Selection Period) - Allows clubs to give the opportunity to invite players to train with them over the off-season, with the potential to be added to their rookie list.

Top 5 Rising Stars and what pick they were drafted

The table below shows the the players who finished in the top 5 for the Rising Star each year for the past 10 years, and where they were drafted in the year previous (or previous year again, if mentioned).

Year
Rising Star Position
Draft Number
2023
1. H. Sheezel
2. W. Ashcroft
3. M. Owens
4. J. Amiss
5. D. Wilmot
#3
#2
#3 (2021)
#8 (2021)
#16 (2021)
2022
1. N. Daicos
2. S. De Koning
3. J. Newcombe
4. J. Ginnivan
5. N. Martin
#4
#19 (2019)
#2
#13 (RD*)
SSP**
2021
1. L. Jackson
2. T. Green
3. M. Georgiades
4. J. McInerney
5. E. Gulden
#3 (2019)
#10 (2019)
#18 (2019)
#44 (2018)
#32
2020
1. C. Serong
2. N. Anderson
3. M. King
4. I. Rankine
5. W. Day
#8
#2
#4 (2018)
#3 (2018)
#13
2019
1. S.Walsh
2. C. Rozee
3. S. Stack
4. B. Smith
4. J. Clark
5. G. Miers
#1
#5
PSS
#7
#15
#57 (2017)
2018
1. J. Stephenson
2. T. Doedee
3. A. Witherden
4. J. Higgins
5. O. Florent
5. J. Henry
#6
#17 (2015)
#23 (2016)
#17
#11 (2016)
#16 (2016 RD)
2017
1. A. McGrath
2. R. Burton
3. S. Powell-Pepper
4. C. Curnow
5. E. Hipwood
#1
#19 (2015)
#18
#12 (2015)
#14 (2015)
2016
1. C. Mills
2. C. Daniel
3. J. Weitering
4. D. Parish
5. D. Moore
#3
#46 (2014)
#1
#5
#9 (2014)
2015
1. J. Hogan
2. P. Cripps
3. D. Sheed
4. I. Heeney
5. A. Brayshaw
#2 (MD***)
#13 (2013)
#11 (2013)
#18
#3
2014
1. L. Taylor
2. M. Bontempelli
3. L. McDonald
4. J. Aish
5. K. Kolodjashnij
#28
#4
#8
#7
#5

*RD (Rookie Draft) - Drafted as a player outside of each teams 38-man list, and cannot play unless elevated to senior list (to replace a retired player or someone with a long term injury).
**SSP (Pre-Season Supplemental Selection Period) - Allows clubs to give the opportunity to invite players to train with them over the off-season, with the potential to be added to their rookie list.

***MD (Mini-Draft) - As part of their entry into the AFL, GWS were allocated up to four selections in a mini-draft, which they could recruit 17 year olds who were not eligible for the current years draft, which they could later trade .

Predictions for AFL Rising Star

AFL number one draft picks are judged incredibly harshly throughout their career. These stats above, actually tell a good story and reaffirm that the teams selection committees' generally know what they are talking about, as the higher a player is drafted, the better they have performed in the Rising Star.

In the past 10 years, and out of the 52 players who finished in the Top 5 for the Rising Star:

  • 26 players who polled in the top 5, were a top 10 draft pick (50% of players)
  • 18 of these players, were a top 5 draft pick (35% of players)
  • 5 players who won the Rising Star, were a top 3 draft pick (50%)
  • 2x number 1 draft picks, won the Rising Star (20%)
  • 21 players polled in the top 5, who were a second or third year player (40%)

While it's too early to tell who will poll well, we can see what players historically have good odds, for what their draft spot says about them.

Take Harley Reid for example. History tells us there is a 20% chance he should win. Without him playing a game of AFL football, if he was paying over 5.00, we think that would be a decent bet - especially because he looks like a fair jet in the under's, and there'll definitely be a place for him to shine at West Coast.

However, at 3.75, that is not a good bet at this point in time.

Older Players

It is also interesting (yet not really surprising), that the older young players poll well in the Rising Star, due to more exposure in the game, and their bodies filling out a bit more. Although there has only been one second year player to win the Rising Star in the past 10 years (2021 Luke Jackson), if we go back a few more years - in 2012 Daniel Talia won the Rising Star after being drafted three years prior, and Dan Hannebery won it in 2010, after being drafted two years before that.

If we count Jaeger O'Meara (2013 winner) and Jesse Hogan (2015 winner) - both players were in the mini draft two years prior, giving them the edge of AFL exposure that the other older players received.

To make it easier to swallow all of this - since 2010-2023, 5 players were drafted before the year previous, and have won the Rising Star (36%).

2 of the 4 players (50%) from the Mini-Draft, won the AFL Rising Star. It's pretty well accepted that the Mini-Draft players would have gone probably in picks 1 and 2, for their respective year drafts. The Mini-Draftees therefore were likely high picks, but also had the experience playing (or training at least) with the big boys for an extra year, to give them an extra edge.

With all this information - this is why former #2 pick (2021) Sam Darcy was our AFL Rising Star pick before the start of the season.

    Jimmy Mason
    Jimmy Mason

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    FAQ

    Can you win Rising Star if you get suspended AFL?

    No. A player can only be nominated once per season for the rising star. A suspended player can be nominated, but they are not eligible to win the award.

    Who is eligible for the Rising Star?

    To be eligible for the AFL Rising Star, a player must be under 21 years of age, as of the 1st of January 2024, and played 10 or less games before the start of the 2024 AFL Season.

    How does the AFL Rising Star voting work?

    One player is chosen for each round of the home-and-away AFL season to be the Rising Star for that week.

    At the end of the season, a panel of experts vote between all players who received a nomination to determine the winner.

    What is the AFL Rising Star Award?

    The AFL Rising Star Award is given to the the player who has been voted as the best young and new player in the AFL, for that given year.

    Who are all the AFL Rising Star Winners?
    YearPlayerClub
    2023Harry SheezelNM
    2022Nick DaicosCOLL
    2021Luke JacksonMELB
    2020Caleb SerongFRE
    2019Sam WalshCARL
    2018Jaidyn StephensonCOLL
    2017Andrew McGrathESS
    2016Callum MillsSYD
    2015Jesse HoganMELB
    2014Lewis TaylorBL
    2013Jaeger O'MearaGCFC
    2012Daniel TaliaADEL
    2011Dyson HeppellESS
    2010Daniel HanneberySYD
    2009Daniel RichBL
    2008Rhys PalmerFRE
    2007Joel SelwoodGEEL
    2006Danyle PearcePORT
    2005Brett DeledioRICH
    2004Jared RiversMELB
    2003Sam MitchellHAW
    2002Nick RiewoldtSTK
    2001Justin KoschitzkeSTK
    2000Paul HaslebyFRE
    1999Adam GoodesSYD
    1998Byron PickettNMFC
    1997Michael WilsonPORT
    1996Ben CousinsWCE
    1995Nick HollandHAW
    1994Chris ScottBL
    1993Nathan BuckleyBL
    How many players have won the Rising Star?

    There have been 31 AFL players to win the Rising Star since its inception in 1993. The most recent in 2023 was Harry Sheezel.

    Have any Rising Stars won the Brownlow?

    There have been four players that have won the Rising Star, that have gone on to win a Brownlow since 1993, which are Nathan Buckley, Ben Cousins, Adam Goodes and Sam Mitchell.

    Previous AFL Rising Stars' Nick Daicos and Sam Walsh, are two of the top three favourites to win the 2024 AFL Brownlow Medal.

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