Brownlow Medal 2024 Betting Odds | Tips & Why Caleb Serong will win

Why Caleb Serong will win

2024 AFL Brownlow Medal Odds

AFL Player	Best Odds Found
Isaac Heeney (Sydney)	5.50 at betm.com.au
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)	11.00 at colossalbet.com.au
Tom Green (Greater Western Sydney)	12.00 at betr.com.au
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide)	13.00 at betr.com.au
Patrick Cripps (Carlton)	15.00 at bluebet.com.au
Caleb Serong (Fremantle)	15.00 at playup.com.au
Christian Petracca (Melbourne)	15.00 at betr.com.au
Nick Daicos (Collingwood)	17.00 at colossalbet.com.au
Matt Rowell (Gold Coast)	17.00 at playup.com.au
Matt Rowell (Gold Coast)	19.00 at colossalbet.com.au
Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)	21.00 at unibet.com.au
Zach Merrett (Essendon)	26.00 at betm.com.au

We compare the best odds for each player across different betting sites. Last updated 22/4/24

Who will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

Isaac Heeney is the favourite to win the Brownlow with the highest odds paying 5.50 at most across all betting sites. Heeney has been a great option up forward for years, and the move to the midfield was long overdue. However, Sydney aren't short on stars such as Gulden, Warner, Grundy and many others that on their day are likely to win a vote. This will be Heeney's kryptonite in our opinion.

Best odds for Isaac Heeney to win the Brownlow are 5.50 with betm.com.au

Tom Green is another front runner for the Brownlow, and was our tip before the season started, where we backed him at odds of 19.00 on 29/2/2024. Green has been getting plenty of the footy, doesn't have many people to steal votes from him this year, and with GWS looking unstoppable it would be safe to assume he will be at the pointy end of the Brownlow come the last Monday in September.

Best odds for Tom Green to win the Brownlow are 12.00 with betr.com.au

Who is our Brownlow Tip?

Jimmy Mason

Caleb Serong (Fremantle)

Our initial tip prior to the Opening Round was for Tom Green to win, who was paying at most 19.00 at bookies. Tom Green had the highest number of contested possessions last year, and in the past 6 seasons (excluding 2023), the player who won the Brownlow finished in the top 3 for average contested possessions. It’s obviously an act that the umpires rate very highly, and when you’re in a team that is also winning games (as we expected from GWS this year), it will prove a huge advantage.

However, now we have changed our tune to Caleb Serong, who again was high on our radar, but was discounted as we didn’t expect much from Fremantle. Serong is leading the average contested possessions this year (as well as Dreamteam and Supercoach points), and he has less players to steal votes from him.

Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield and Jesse Hogan will all be polling this year for the Giants, but over at Fremantle, it is likely to be more of a one man show. Sydney also have many players this year stealing votes from one another, including Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner. Last year the second highest vote getter for Fremantle was Andrew Brayshaw on 10 votes only.

This is how Lachie Neale managed to win last year, and if Fremantle finish in the top 6 and Serong keeps up this form, he will definitely be dangerous come September.

Best current odds for Caleb Serong is 15.00 at playup.com.au

Supercoach, Dreamteam & Brownlow History
Contested Possessions & Brownlow History
Highest vote getters for winning players team

2024 Historical Brownlow Medal Tips

Before Opening Round Tip: Our tip for the Brownlow Medal before Opening Round was for Tom Green for 19.00 at unibet.com.au
29/2/2024
"That really big sound from the West side of the town will only get bigger in 2024, and although most eyes are on their fearsome leader Toby Greene (who I've been told is a better looking version of me)- Tom Green is the one we have our eyes on.
Tom polled 16 votes and missed 5 games in the home and away season last year, and was suspended in round six for rough conduct, making him ineligible to win the Brownlow- which I reckon definitely sways the voters decisions for the rest of year, and not in a positive way.
Personal theories aside, Tom Green had the highest contested possession average for the whole year, which is including the 2024 final series. He also came fourth for the Gary Ayres Award for the best player in the finals series. Very impressive for only playing 3/4 games.
Sam Walsh (Carlton) won the award (and is now 3rd favourite for the Brownlow due to this) for also playing 3/4 games - however, even though we are expecting Carlton to be a top 4 team next year, Walsh has the likes of Cripps and big Charlie to contend with. While Tom Green's main competition is Toby Greene".
Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip: Our tip for the Brownlow Medal before Round 4 was for Caleb Serong is 10.00 at playup.com.au
3/4/2024

Round 11 Tip: We will give this updated Brownlow Medal Tip before Round 11.

Round 17 Tip: We will give this updated Brownlow Medal Tip before Round 17.

End of Season Tip: We will give this updated Brownlow Medal Tip after Round 24.

Supercoach, Dreamteam & Brownlow History

The below table ranks the Brownlow Medal winner, and the player with the highest average points for Supercoach and Dreamteam - all in comparison to where each player finished in each metric. It also shows the top 3 current Dreamteam and Supercoach leaders.

Year	Brownlow Rankings	Dreamteam Rankings	Supercoach Rankings
2024	TBC	1. H. Sheezel 2. M. Gawn 3. I. Heeney	1. I. Heeney 2. M. Gawn 3. M. Rowell
2023	1. L. Neale 2. M. Bontempelli 36. T. English	1. T. English 2. M. Bontempelli 34. L. Neale	1. M. Bontempelli 2. T. English 18. L. Neale
2022	1. P. Cripps 4. C. Oliver 41. R. Laird	1. R. Laird 3. C. Oliver 18. P. Cripps	1. C. Oliver 2. R. Laird 12. P. Cripps
2021	1. O. Wines 15. T. Miller 23. J. Macrae	1. T. Miller 3. J. Macrae 6. O. Wines	1. J. Macrae 4. T. Miller 17. O. Wines
2020	1. L. Neale	1. L. Neale	1. L. Neale
2019	1. N. Fyfe 7. B. Grundy	1. B. Grundy 17. N. Fyfe	1. B. Grundy 4. N. Fyfe
2018	1. T. Mitchell 10. B. Grundy	1. T. Mitchell	1. B. Grundy 2. T. Mitchell
2017	1. D. Martin 2. Patrick Dangerfield 3. T. Mitchell	1. T. Mitchell 2. Patrick Dangerfield 10. D. Martin	1. Patrick Dangerfield 2. D. Martin 3. T. Mitchell
2016	1. Patrick Dangerfield	1. Patrick Dangerfield	1. Patrick Dangerfield
2015	1. N. Fyfe 10. T. Goldstein 61. S. Martin	1. S. Martin 5. T. Goldstein 17. N. Fyfe	1. T. Goldstein 2. N. Fyfe 12. S. Martin
2014	1. M. Priddis 2. N. Fyfe 16. T. Rockliff	1. T. Rockliff 7. M. Priddis 15. N. Fyfe	1. T. Rockliff 4. N. Fyfe 11. M. Priddis
2013	1. G. Ablett 2. J. Selwood 3. D. Swan	1. D. Swan 3. G. Ablett 11. J. Selwood	1. G. Ablett 3. J. Selwood 5. D. Swan

Source - Footywire. Minimum 20 games played (15 in 2020), ranked as highest average Dreamteam and Supercoach points across the whole season.

Supercoach and Dreamteam relevance for The Brownlow Medal

Jimmy Mason

Key Takeaways

In the past 11 Brownlow Medals, four times a player has had both the highest Supercoach average, and the highest Dreamteam average points for the year.
Two out of those four times, that player has won the Brownlow - Lachie Neale (2020) and Patrick Dangerfield (2016).
In 2019, Brodie Grundy had the highest Dreamteam and Supercoach averages and finished 7th in the Brownlow. Ruckman notoriously do well in Supercoach and Dreamteam due to extra points from hit outs, but less so in Brownlow rankings.
In 2018, Tom Mitchell had the most Dreamteam points, and had the most Supercoach points of any midfielder (2nd overall) and went on to win the Brownlow. Brodie Grundy had the highest Supercoach rankings that year.

Conclusion

If we discount the ruckman, each time a player has had both the top Dreamteam and Supercoach average score for the year (from midfielders) - the past 11 years have shown that 3 of these 5 have won the Brownlow, giving them a 60% likelihood of winning the Brownlow.

Scroll up, or click the link to see the best odds compared from all betting sites for the favourite players to win the 2024 Brownlow Medal.

Contested Possessions & Brownlow History

The below table ranks the top 4 highest vote getters for the Brownlow Medal, and the top 4 players with the highest average possessions for the corresponding years.
The rankings are amended in case the Brownlow winner, or the player with the most contested possessions did not poll in the top 4 for the other metric.

Year	Brownlow Rankings	Contested Possessions Rankings
2024	TBC	1. M. Rowell 2. T. Liberatore 3. P. Cripps 4. C. Serong
2023	1. L. Neale 2. M. Bontempelli 3. N. Daicos 4. E. Gulden	1. T. Green 2. M. Bontempelli 2. T. Liberatore 8. L. Neale
2022	1. P. Cripps 2. L. Neale 3. T. Miller 4. C. Oliver	1. C. Oliver 2. L. Neale 3. P. Cripps 4. T. Miller
2021	1. O. Wines 2. M. Bontempelli 3. C. Oliver 4. S. Walsh	1. C. Oliver 2. R. Laird 3. O. Wines 4. C. Petracca
2020	1. L. Neale 2. T. Boak 3. C. Petracca & J. Steele	1. C. Oliver 2. C. Petracca 3. L. Neale 4. T. Adams
2019	1. N. Fyfe 2. P. Dangerfield 3. P. Cripps & L. Neale	1. N. Fyfe 2. P. Cripps 3. C. Oliver 4. L. Neale
2018	1. T. Mitchell 2. S. Sidebottom 3. A. Brayshaw 4. P. Cripps	1. P. Cripps 2. T. Mitchell 3. C. Oliver 4. B. Cunnington
2017	1. D. Martin 2. P. Dangerfield 3. T. Mitchell 4. J. Kennedy	1. P. Dangerfield 2. C. Oliver 3. J. Kennedy 7. D. Martin
2016	1. P. Dangerfield 2. L. Parker 3. D. Martin 4. R. Sloane	1. J. Kennedy 2. P. Cripps 3. L. Neale 4. P. Dangerfield
2015	1. N. Fyfe 2. M. Priddis 3. S. Mitchell 4. J. Kennedy	1. N. Fyfe 2. J. Kennedy 3. P. Dangerfield 4. M. Priddis
2014	1. M. Priddis 2. N. Fyfe 3. G. Ablett & L. Franklin 5. J. Kennedy	1. J. Kennedy 2. N. Fyfe 3. P. Dangerfield 4. M. Priddis
2013	1. G. Ablett 2. J. Selwood 3. D. Swan 4. S. Johnson	1. J. Kennedy 2. G. Ablett 3. T. Liberatore 4. M. Priddis

Source - Footywire. Minimum 20 games played (15 for 2020), ranked as highest average contested possession across the whole season.

Contested Possession relevance for The Brownlow Medal

Jimmy Mason

Key Takeaways

In the past 11 Brownlow Medals, only twice has a player finished outside the top 4 for highest average of contested possessions and won the Brownlow. That was in 2017 with Dustin Martin (who finished 7th for contested possessions) and Lachie Neale in 2023 (8th).
In 8 out of of the past 9 Brownlow Medals (2014 onwards), there has been at least two players who finished in the top 4 for highest average contested possessions, to finish in the top 4 for the Brownlow Medal.
In 2022, all four players that finished in the top 4 for contested possessions, finished in the top 4 for the Brownlow

Conclusion

Over the years, the umpires have rewarded the players more that have gotten their head over the ball and are winning the contested footy. From 2014-2023, the statistics show that if a player finishes in the top 4 of the highest average for contested possessions, there is a 61% chance that they will finish in the top 4 for the Brownlow Medal.

Scroll up, or click the link to see the best odds compared from all betting sites for the favourite players to win the 2024 Brownlow Medal.

Brownlow Medal - Highest Vote Getters For Winning Players Team

The below table ranks the top 3 highest vote getters for the team that the winner of the Brownlow Medal played for that season.

Year	Team Brownlow Votes	Team End of Season Ranking
2023	(Brisbane) L. Neale - 31 J. Daniher - 12 W. Ashcroft 10	2nd
2022	(Carlton) P. Cripps - 29 S. Walsh - 14 C. Curnow 11	9th
2021	(Port Adelaide) O. Wines - 36 T. Boak - 25 K. Amon - 11	2nd
2020	(Brisbane) L. Neale - 31 J. Lyons - 9 J. Berry - 8	2nd
2019	(Fremantle) N. Fyfe - 33 M. Walters - 11 D. Mundy - 8	13th
2018	(Hawthorn) T. Mitchell - 28 J. O'Meara - 13 J. Gunston - 10	4th
2017	(Richmond) D. Martin - 36 T. Cotchin - 8 A. Rance - 8	3rd
2016	(Geelong) P. Dangerfield - 35 J. Selwood - 18 C. Enright - 8	2nd
2015	(Fremantle) N. Fyfe - 31 D. Mundy - 19 A. Sandilands - 14	1st
2014	(West Coast) M. Priddis - 36 J. Kennedy - 11 L. Shuey - 9	9th
2013	(Gold Coast) G. Ablett - 28 D. Prestia - 9 H. Bennell - 7	14th

Source - AFL Tables

Highest Vote Getters For Winning Players Team Relevance for Brownlow Medal

Jimmy Mason

Key Takeaways

In the past 11 Brownlow Medals, thrice has the winning player, had another player from the same team poll more than 15 votes.
On all three of these occasions (2015, 2016, 2021) the player who won the Brownlow- their team had finished in the top 2 for that year.
7/11 Brownlow Medal winners - their team had finished in the top 4 for that season

Conclusion

Players from lower ranking teams are only more likely to win the Brownlow, if they have less players in their team that will take votes from them.

While it is not unheard of that a player from a lower ranking team to win the Brownlow, it is much more common that their team finishes higher, as they win more games, obviously more players on the winning team have played better.

FAQ

Where can I bet on the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

You can bet on the Brownlow Medal from any of the betting sites mentioned on this web page. Here is a list of betting sites offering markets on the 2024 Brownlow Medal:

How do I bet on the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

Click on one of the betting sites links on this page
Sign up (if you don't already have an account)
Head to the Sports section
Find Australian Rules
Select Futures, or AFL 2024 (AFL will usually take you to the current games this week)
Select "Brownlow Medal Winner"
Select the player that you think will win
Deposit money and choose you stake
Place your bet!

What time does the Brownlow Medal start?

Alike previous years, the Brownlow Medal vote count is expected to begin at around 7:35pm AEST 23/9/24, with the red carpet broadcast beginning at around 7:00 AEST.

What date is the Brownlow Medal?

23rd of September 2024. The Brownlow Medal will be held at the traditional date of the Monday before the Grand Final, after it was rescheduled in 2022 due to the Queen's funeral.

What is the Brownlow Medal?

The Charles Brownlow Medal is awarded to the player(s) deemed to be the "best and fairest" in the home-and-away season, in the Australian Football League. The three umpires officiating each game give three votes on a 3-2-1 basis, to the players that they determined to be the best and fairest for the game.

It is the most highest and most prestigious award for individual players in the AFL.

Who has previously won the Brownlow Medal?

Year	Player	Team	Votes
1924	Edward Greeves Jr.	Geelong	7
1925	Colin Watson	St Kilda	9
1926	Ivor Warne-Smith	Melbourne	9
1927	Syd Coventry	Collingwood	7
1928	Ivor Warne-Smith	Melbourne	8
1929	Albert Collier	Collingwood	6
1930	Harry Collier^[i]	Collingwood	4
	Allan Hopkins^[i]	Footscray	4
	Stan Judkins	Richmond	4
1931	Haydn Bunton Sr.	Fitzroy	26
1932	Haydn Bunton Sr.	Fitzroy	23
1933	Wilfred "Chicken" Smallhorn	Fitzroy	18
1934	Dick Reynolds	Essendon	19
1935	Haydn Bunton Sr.	Fitzroy	24
1936	Denis Ryan	Fitzroy	26
1937	Dick Reynolds	Essendon	27
1938	Dick Reynolds	Essendon	18
1939	Marcus Whelan	Collingwood	23
1940	Des Fothergill	Collingwood	32
1940	Herbie Matthews	South Melbourne	32
1941	Norman Ware	Footscray	23
1942	No medal awarded
1943
1944
1945
1946	Don Cordner	Melbourne	20
1947	Bert Deacon	Carlton	20
1948	Bill Morris	Richmond	24
1949	Col Austen^[i]	Hawthorn	23
1949	Ron Clegg	South Melbourne	23
1950	Allan Ruthven	Fitzroy	21
1951	Bernie Smith	Geelong	23
1952	Roy Wright	Richmond	21
1952	Bill Hutchison^[i]	Essendon	21
1953	Bill Hutchison	Essendon	26
1954	Roy Wright	Richmond	29
1955	Fred Goldsmith	South Melbourne	21
1956	Peter Box	Footscray	22
1957	Brian Gleeson	St Kilda	24
1958	Neil Roberts	St Kilda	20
1959	Verdun Howell^[i]	St Kilda	20
1959	Bob Skilton	South Melbourne	20
1960	John Schultz	Footscray	20
1961	John James	Carlton	21
1962	Alistair Lord	Geelong	28
1963	Bob Skilton	South Melbourne	20
1964	Gordon Collis	Carlton	27
1965	Noel Teasdale^[i]	North Melbourne	20
1965	Ian Stewart	St Kilda	20
1966	Ian Stewart	St Kilda	21
1967	Ross Smith	St Kilda	24
1968	Bob Skilton	South Melbourne	24
1969	Kevin Murray	Fitzroy	19
1970	Peter Bedford	South Melbourne	25
1971	Ian Stewart	Richmond	21
1972	Len Thompson	Collingwood	25
1973	Keith Greig	North Melbourne	27
1974	Keith Greig	North Melbourne	27
1975	Gary Dempsey	Footscray	20
1976	Graham Moss	Essendon	48
1977	Graham Teasdale	South Melbourne	59
1978	Malcolm Blight	North Melbourne	22
1979	Peter Moore	Collingwood	22
1980	Kelvin Templeton	Footscray	23
1981	Bernie Quinlan	Fitzroy	22
1981	Barry Round	South Melbourne	22
1982	Brian Wilson	Melbourne	23
1983	Ross Glendinning	North Melbourne	24
1984	Peter Moore	Melbourne	24
1985	Brad Hardie	Footscray	22
1986	Robert DiPierdomenico	Hawthorn	17
1986	Greg Williams	Sydney	17
1987	John Platten	Hawthorn	20
1987	Tony Lockett	St Kilda	20
1988	Gerard Healy	Sydney	20
1989	Paul Couch	Geelong	22
1990	Tony Liberatore	Footscray	18
1991	Jim Stynes	Melbourne	25
1992	Scott Wynd	Footscray	20
1993	Gavin Wanganeen	Essendon	18
1994	Greg Williams	Carlton	30
1995	Paul Kelly	Sydney	21
1996	James Hird	Essendon	21
1996	Michael Voss	Brisbane Bears	21
1997	Robert Harvey	St Kilda	26
1998	Robert Harvey	St Kilda	32
1999	Shane Crawford	Hawthorn	28
2000	Shane Woewodin	Melbourne	24
2001	Jason Akermanis	Brisbane Lions	23
2002	Simon Black	Brisbane Lions	25
2003	Mark Ricciuto	Adelaide	22
	Nathan Buckley	Collingwood	22
	Adam Goodes	Sydney	22
2004	Chris Judd	West Coast	30
2005	Ben Cousins	West Coast	20
2006	Adam Goodes	Sydney	26
2007	Jimmy Bartel	Geelong	29
2008	Adam Cooney	Western Bulldogs	24
2009	Gary Ablett Jr.	Geelong	30
2010	Chris Judd	Carlton	30
2011	Dane Swan	Collingwood	34
2012	Sam Mitchell	Hawthorn	26
2012	Trent Cotchin	Richmond	26
2013	Gary Ablett Jr.	Gold Coast	28
2014	Matt Priddis	West Coast	26
2015	Nat Fyfe	Fremantle	31
2016	Patrick Dangerfield	Geelong	35
2017	Dustin Martin	Richmond	36
2018	Tom Mitchell	Hawthorn	28
2019	Nat Fyfe	Fremantle	33
2020	Lachie Neale	Brisbane Lions	31
2021	Ollie Wines	Port Adelaide	36
2022	Patrick Cripps	Carlton	29
2023	Lachie Neale	Brisbane Lions	31

Has anyone won more than one Brownlow Medal?

The following players have won more than one Brownlow Medal.

Medals	Player	Team	Seasons
3	Haydn Bunton Sr.	Fitzroy	1931, 1932, 1935
	Dick Reynolds	Essendon	1934, 1937, 1938
	Bob Skilton	South Melbourne	1959, 1963, 1968
	Ian Stewart	St Kilda / Richmond	1965, 1966, 1971
2	Ivor Warne-Smith	Melbourne	1926, 1928
	Bill Hutchison	Essendon	1952, 1953
	Roy Wright	Richmond	1952, 1954
	Keith Greig	North Melbourne	1973, 1974
	Peter Moore	Collingwood / Melbourne	1979, 1984
	Greg Williams	Sydney / Carlton	1986, 1994
	Robert Harvey	St Kilda	1997, 1998
	Adam Goodes	Sydney	2003, 2006
	Chris Judd	West Coast / Carlton	2004, 2010
	Gary Ablett Jr.	Geelong / Gold Coast	2009, 2013
	Nat Fyfe Lachie Neale	Fremantle Brisbane Lions	2015, 2019 2020, 2023

Who is Chas Brownlow?

Charlie "Chas" Brownlow was a former VFL footballer who played with Geelong between 1880-1884. Brownlow spent close to 40 years as the Geelong Football Club secretary, along with numerous roles on the VFL Board including vice-president and delegate to the Australasian Football Council. Brownlow was also the chairman of the permit and umpires committee from 1911-1922.

The VFL season directly after his death (1924), the Brownlow Medal was named in his honour and awarded to the fairest and best player throughout the year as judged by the umpires.

Brownlow Medal 2024 Betting Odds & Insights

2024 AFL Brownlow Medal Odds

Who will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

2024 Historical Brownlow Medal Tips

Supercoach, Dreamteam & Brownlow History

Contested Possessions & Brownlow History

Brownlow Medal - Highest Vote Getters For Winning Players Team

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