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Brownlow Medal 2024 Betting Odds & Insights

3 July 2023

Who will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal? See our extensive statistical insights of previous winners, along with the best odds found over all betting sites

2024 AFL Brownlow Medal Odds

AFL Player
Best Odds Found
Tom Green
(Greater Western Sydney
)
Nick Daicos
(Collingwood)
10.00 at
betm.com.au
Caleb Serong
(Fremantle)
Isaac Heeney
(Sydney)
Marcus Bontempelli
(Western Bulldogs)
Matt Rowell
(Gold Coast)
Zak Butters
(Port Adelaide)
Christian Petracca
(Melbourne)
18.00 at
betm.com.au
Patrick Cripps
(Carlton)
18.00 at
betm.com.au
Errol Gulden
(Sydney)
Lachie Neale
(Brisbane)
21.00 at
betm.com.au
Clayton Oliver
(Melbourne)
Chad Warner
(Sydney)

We compare the best odds for each player across different betting sites. Last updated 3/4/24

Who will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

Tom Green is the favourite to win the Brownlow with the highest odds being 8.00 across all betting sites. Tom Green was our tip before the season started, where we backed him at odds of 19.00 on 29/2/2024. Green has been getting plenty of the footy, doesn't have many people to steal votes from him this year, and with GWS looking unstoppable it would be safe to assume he will be at the pointy end of the Brownlow come the last Monday in September.

Best odds for Tom Green to win the Brownlow are 8.00 with bluebet.com.au

Nick Daicos, is still one of the favourites again this year to win the Brownlow paying at most 9.00, despite Collingwood having a very shaky start to the year, and receiving a heavy tag. His odds have dropped significantly this year. Nick is still getting many disposals, but rarely gets contested possessions, which is impacting his ability to draw votes in our opinion.

Best odds for Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow are 10.00 with betm.com.au

Who is our Brownlow Tip?

Caleb Serong (Fremantle)

Our initial tip prior to the Opening Round was for Tom Green to win, who was paying at most 19.00 at bookies. Tom Green had the highest number of contested possessions last year, and in the past 6 seasons (excluding 2023), the player who won the Brownlow finished in the top 3 for average contested possessions. It’s obviously an act that the umpires rate very highly, and when you’re in a team that is also winning games (as we expected from GWS this year), it will prove a huge advantage.

However, now we have changed our tune to Caleb Serong, who again was high on our radar, but was discounted as we didn’t expect much from Fremantle. Serong is leading the average contested possessions this year (as well as Dreamteam and Supercoach points), and he has less players to steal votes from him.

Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield and Jesse Hogan will all be polling this year for the Giants, but over at Fremantle, it is likely to be more of a one man show. Sydney also have many players this year stealing votes from one another, including Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner. Last year the second highest vote getter for Fremantle was Andrew Brayshaw on 10 votes only.

This is how Lachie Neale managed to win last year, and if Fremantle finish in the top 6 and Serong keeps up this form, he will definitely be dangerous come September.

Best odds for Caleb Serong is 10.00 at playup.com.au

2024 Historical Brownlow Medal Tips

Before Opening Round Tip

Our tip for the Brownlow Medal before Opening Round was for Tom Green for 19.00 at unibet.com.au

29/2/2024

"That really big sound from the West side of the town will only get bigger in 2024, and although most eyes are on their fearsome leader Toby Greene (who I've been told is a better looking version of me)- Tom Green is the one we have our eyes on.

Tom polled 16 votes and missed 5 games in the home and away season last year, and was suspended in round six for rough conduct, making him ineligible to win the Brownlow- which I reckon definitely sways the voters decisions for the rest of year, and not in a positive way.

Personal theories aside, Tom Green had the highest contested possession average for the whole year, which is including the 2024 final series. He also came fourth for the Gary Ayres Award for the best player in the finals series. Very impressive for only playing 3/4 games.

Sam Walsh (Carlton) won the award (and is now 3rd favourite for the Brownlow due to this) for also playing 3/4 games - however, even though we are expecting Carlton to be a top 4 team next year, Walsh has the likes of Cripps and big Charlie to contend with. While Tom Green's main competition is Toby Greene".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip

Our tip for the Brownlow Medal before Round 4 was for Caleb Serong is 10.00 at playup.com.au

3/4/2024

Round 11 Tip

We will give this updated Brownlow Medal Tip before Round 11.

Round 17 Tip

We will give this updated Brownlow Medal Tip before Round 17.

End of Season Tip

We will give this updated Brownlow Medal Tip after Round 24.

Supercoach, Dreamteam & Brownlow History

  • The below table ranks the Brownlow Medal winner, and the player with the highest average points for Supercoach and Dreamteam - all in comparison to where each player finished in each metric. It also shows the top 3 current Dreamteam and Supercoach leaders.
Year
Brownlow Rankings
Dreamteam Rankings
Supercoach Rankings
2024
TBC
1. C. Serong
2. T. Green
3. I. Heeney
1. C. Serong
2. Z. Butters
3. T. Green
2023
1. L. Neale
2. M. Bontempelli
36. T. English
1. T. English
2. M. Bontempelli
34. L. Neale
1. M. Bontempelli
2. T. English
18. L. Neale
2022
1. P. Cripps
4. C. Oliver
41. R. Laird
1. R. Laird
3. C. Oliver
18. P. Cripps

1. C. Oliver
2. R. Laird
12. P. Cripps
2021
1. O. Wines
15. T. Miller
23. J. Macrae
1. T. Miller
3. J. Macrae
6. O. Wines
1. J. Macrae
4. T. Miller
17. O. Wines
2020
1. L. Neale
1. L. Neale
1. L. Neale
2019
1. N. Fyfe
7. B. Grundy
1. B. Grundy
17. N. Fyfe
1. B. Grundy
4. N. Fyfe
2018
1. T. Mitchell
10. B. Grundy
1. T. Mitchell
1. B. Grundy
2. T. Mitchell
2017
1. D. Martin
2. Patrick
Dangerfield
3. T. Mitchell
1. T. Mitchell
2. Patrick
Dangerfield
10. D. Martin
1. Patrick
Dangerfield
2. D. Martin

3. T. Mitchell
2016
1. Patrick
Dangerfield
1. Patrick
Dangerfield
1. Patrick
Dangerfield
2015
1. N. Fyfe
10. T. Goldstein
61. S. Martin
1. S. Martin
5. T. Goldstein
17. N. Fyfe

1. T. Goldstein
2. N. Fyfe

12. S. Martin
2014
1. M. Priddis
2. N. Fyfe
16. T. Rockliff
1. T. Rockliff
7. M. Priddis

15. N. Fyfe
1. T. Rockliff
4. N. Fyfe
11. M. Priddis
2013
1. G. Ablett
2. J. Selwood
3. D. Swan
1. D. Swan
3. G. Ablett

11. J. Selwood
1. G. Ablett
3. J. Selwood
5. D. Swan


Source - Footywire. Minimum 20 games played (15 in 2020), ranked as highest average Dreamteam and Supercoach points across the whole season.

Supercoach and Dreamteam relevance for The Brownlow Medal

Key Takeaways

  • In the past 11 Brownlow Medals, four times a player has had both the highest Supercoach average, and the highest Dreamteam average points for the year.
  • Two out of those four times, that player has won the Brownlow - Lachie Neale (2020) and Patrick Dangerfield (2016).
  • In 2019, Brodie Grundy had the highest Dreamteam and Supercoach averages and finished 7th in the Brownlow. Ruckman notoriously do well in Supercoach and Dreamteam due to extra points from hit outs, but less so in Brownlow rankings.
  • In 2018, Tom Mitchell had the most Dreamteam points, and had the most Supercoach points of any midfielder (2nd overall) and went on to win the Brownlow. Brodie Grundy had the highest Supercoach rankings that year.

Conclusion

If we discount the ruckman, each time a player has had both the top Dreamteam and Supercoach average score for the year (from midfielders) - the past 11 years have shown that 3 of these 5 have won the Brownlow, giving them a 60% likelihood of winning the Brownlow.

Scroll up, or click the link to see the best odds compared from all betting sites for the favourite players to win the 2024 Brownlow Medal.

Contested Possessions & Brownlow History

  • The below table ranks the top 4 highest vote getters for the Brownlow Medal, and the top 4 players with the highest average possessions for the corresponding years.
  • The rankings are amended in case the Brownlow winner, or the player with the most contested possessions did not poll in the top 4 for the other metric.
Year
Brownlow Rankings
Contested Possessions Rankings
2024
TBC
1. M. Rowell
2. L. Neale
3. T. Green
3. C. Serong
2023
1. L. Neale
2. M. Bontempelli
3. N. Daicos
4. E. Gulden
1. T. Green
2. M. Bontempelli
2. T. Liberatore
8. L. Neale
2022
1. P. Cripps
2. L. Neale
3. T. Miller
4. C. Oliver
1. C. Oliver
2. L. Neale

3. P. Cripps
4. T. Miller
2021
1. O. Wines
2. M. Bontempelli
3. C. Oliver

4. S. Walsh
1. C. Oliver
2. R. Laird
3. O. Wines
4. C. Petracca
2020
1. L. Neale
2. T. Boak
3. C. Petracca
&
J. Steele
1. C. Oliver
2. C. Petracca

3. L. Neale
4. T. Adams
2019
1. N. Fyfe
2. P. Dangerfield
3. P. Cripps
&
L. Neale

1. N. Fyfe
2. P. Cripps

3. C. Oliver
4. L. Neale
2018
1. T. Mitchell
2. S. Sidebottom
3. A. Brayshaw
4. P. Cripps
1. P. Cripps
2. T. Mitchell
3. C. Oliver
4. B. Cunnington
2017
1. D. Martin
2. P. Dangerfield

3. T. Mitchell
4. J. Kennedy

1. P. Dangerfield
2. C. Oliver
3. J. Kennedy

7. D. Martin

2016
1. P. Dangerfield
2. L. Parker
3. D. Martin
4. R. Sloane
1. J. Kennedy
2. P. Cripps
3. L. Neale
4. P. Dangerfield
2015
1. N. Fyfe
2. M. Priddis

3. S. Mitchell
4. J. Kennedy
1. N. Fyfe
2. J. Kennedy

3. P. Dangerfield
4. M. Priddis

2014
1. M. Priddis
2. N. Fyfe

3. G. Ablett &
L. Franklin
5. J. Kennedy
1. J. Kennedy
2. N. Fyfe

3. P. Dangerfield
4. M. Priddis
2013
1. G. Ablett
2. J. Selwood
3. D. Swan
4. S. Johnson
1. J. Kennedy
2. G. Ablett

3. T. Liberatore
4. M. Priddis


Source - Footywire. Minimum 20 games played (15 for 2020), ranked as highest average contested possession across the whole season.

Contested Possession relevance for The Brownlow Medal

Key Takeaways

  • In the past 11 Brownlow Medals, only twice has a player finished outside the top 4 for highest average of contested possessions and won the Brownlow. That was in 2017 with Dustin Martin (who finished 7th for contested possessions) and Lachie Neale in 2023 (8th).
  • In 8 out of of the past 9 Brownlow Medals (2014 onwards), there has been at least two players who finished in the top 4 for highest average contested possessions, to finish in the top 4 for the Brownlow Medal.
  • In 2022, all four players that finished in the top 4 for contested possessions, finished in the top 4 for the Brownlow

Conclusion

Over the years, the umpires have rewarded the players more that have gotten their head over the ball and are winning the contested footy. From 2014-2023, the statistics show that if a player finishes in the top 4 of the highest average for contested possessions, there is a 61% chance that they will finish in the top 4 for the Brownlow Medal.

Scroll up, or click the link to see the best odds compared from all betting sites for the favourite players to win the 2024 Brownlow Medal.

Brownlow Medal - Highest Vote Getters For Winning Players Team

  • The below table ranks the top 3 highest vote getters for the team that the winner of the Brownlow Medal played for that season.
Year
Team Brownlow Votes
Team End of Season Ranking
2023
(Brisbane)
L. Neale - 31
J. Daniher - 12
W. Ashcroft 10
2nd
2022
(Carlton)
P. Cripps - 29
S. Walsh - 14
C. Curnow 11
9th
2021
(Port Adelaide)
O. Wines - 36
T. Boak - 25
K. Amon - 11

2nd

2020
(Brisbane)
L. Neale - 31
J. Lyons - 9
J. Berry - 8
2nd
2019
(Fremantle)
N. Fyfe - 33
M. Walters - 11
D. Mundy - 8
13th
2018
(Hawthorn)
T. Mitchell - 28
J. O'Meara - 13
J. Gunston - 10
4th
2017
(Richmond)
D. Martin - 36
T. Cotchin - 8
A. Rance - 8
3rd
2016
(Geelong)
P. Dangerfield - 35
J. Selwood - 18
C. Enright - 8
2nd
2015
(Fremantle)
N. Fyfe - 31
D. Mundy - 19
A. Sandilands - 14
1st
2014
(West Coast)
M. Priddis - 36
J. Kennedy - 11
L. Shuey - 9
9th
2013
(Gold Coast)
G. Ablett - 28
D. Prestia - 9
H. Bennell - 7
14th


Source - AFL Tables

Highest Vote Getters For Winning Players Team Relevance for Brownlow Medal

Key Takeaways

  • In the past 11 Brownlow Medals, thrice has the winning player, had another player from the same team poll more than 15 votes.
  • On all three of these occasions (2015, 2016, 2021) the player who won the Brownlow- their team had finished in the top 2 for that year.
  • 7/11 Brownlow Medal winners - their team had finished in the top 4 for that season

Conclusion

Players from lower ranking teams are only more likely to win the Brownlow, if they have less players in their team that will take votes from them.

While it is not unheard of that a player from a lower ranking team to win the Brownlow, it is much more common that their team finishes higher, as they win more games, obviously more players on the winning team have played better.

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    FAQ

    How do I bet on the 2024 Brownlow Medal?

    • Click on one of the betting sites links on this page
    • Sign up (if you don't already have an account)
    • Head to the Sports section
    • Find Australian Rules
    • Select Futures, or AFL 2024 (AFL will usually take you to the current games this week)
    • Select "Brownlow Medal Winner"
    • Select the player that you think will win
    • Deposit money and choose you stake
    • Place your bet!

    What time does the Brownlow Medal start?

    Alike previous years, the Brownlow Medal vote count is expected to begin at around 7:35pm AEST 23/9/24, with the red carpet broadcast beginning at around 7:00 AEST.

    What date is the Brownlow Medal?

    23rd of September 2024. The Brownlow Medal will be held at the traditional date of the Monday before the Grand Final, after it was rescheduled in 2022 due to the Queen's funeral.

    What is the Brownlow Medal?

    The Charles Brownlow Medal is awarded to the player(s) deemed to be the "best and fairest" in the home-and-away season, in the Australian Football League. The three umpires officiating each game give three votes on a 3-2-1 basis, to the players that they determined to be the best and fairest for the game.

    It is the most highest and most prestigious award for individual players in the AFL.

    Who has previously won the Brownlow Medal?

    Year
    Player
    Team
    Votes
    1924
    Edward Greeves Jr.
    Geelong
    7
    1925
    Colin Watson
    St Kilda
    9
    1926
    Ivor Warne-Smith
    Melbourne
    9
    1927
    Syd Coventry
    Collingwood
    7
    1928
    Ivor Warne-Smith
    Melbourne
    8
    1929
    Albert Collier
    Collingwood
    6
    1930
    Harry Collier[i]
    Collingwood
    4
    Allan Hopkins[i]
    Footscray
    4
    Stan Judkins
    Richmond
    4
    1931
    Haydn Bunton Sr.
    Fitzroy
    26
    1932
    Haydn Bunton Sr.
    Fitzroy
    23
    1933
    Wilfred "Chicken" Smallhorn
    Fitzroy
    18
    1934
    Dick Reynolds
    Essendon
    19
    1935
    Haydn Bunton Sr.
    Fitzroy
    24
    1936
    Denis Ryan
    Fitzroy
    26
    1937
    Dick Reynolds
    Essendon
    27
    1938
    Dick Reynolds
    Essendon
    18
    1939
    Marcus Whelan
    Collingwood
    23
    1940
    Des Fothergill
    Collingwood
    32
    Herbie Matthews
    South Melbourne
    32
    1941
    Norman Ware
    Footscray
    23
    1942
    No medal awarded
    1943
    1944
    1945
    1946
    Don Cordner
    Melbourne
    20
    1947
    Bert Deacon
    Carlton
    20
    1948
    Bill Morris
    Richmond
    24
    1949
    Col Austen[i]
    Hawthorn
    23
    Ron Clegg
    South Melbourne
    23
    1950
    Allan Ruthven
    Fitzroy
    21
    1951
    Bernie Smith
    Geelong
    23
    1952
    Roy Wright
    Richmond
    21
    Bill Hutchison[i]
    Essendon
    21
    1953
    Bill Hutchison
    Essendon
    26
    1954
    Roy Wright
    Richmond
    29
    1955
    Fred Goldsmith
    South Melbourne
    21
    1956
    Peter Box
    Footscray
    22
    1957
    Brian Gleeson
    St Kilda
    24
    1958
    Neil Roberts
    St Kilda
    20
    1959
    Verdun Howell[i]
    St Kilda
    20
    Bob Skilton
    South Melbourne
    20
    1960
    John Schultz
    Footscray
    20
    1961
    John James
    Carlton
    21
    1962
    Alistair Lord
    Geelong
    28
    1963
    Bob Skilton
    South Melbourne
    20
    1964
    Gordon Collis
    Carlton
    27
    1965
    Noel Teasdale[i]
    North Melbourne
    20
    Ian Stewart
    St Kilda
    20
    1966
    Ian Stewart
    St Kilda
    21
    1967
    Ross Smith
    St Kilda
    24
    1968
    Bob Skilton
    South Melbourne
    24
    1969
    Kevin Murray
    Fitzroy
    19
    1970
    Peter Bedford
    South Melbourne
    25
    1971
    Ian Stewart
    Richmond
    21
    1972
    Len Thompson
    Collingwood
    25
    1973
    Keith Greig
    North Melbourne
    27
    1974
    Keith Greig
    North Melbourne
    27
    1975
    Gary Dempsey
    Footscray
    20
    1976
    Graham Moss
    Essendon
    48
    1977
    Graham Teasdale
    South Melbourne
    59
    1978
    Malcolm Blight
    North Melbourne
    22
    1979
    Peter Moore
    Collingwood
    22
    1980
    Kelvin Templeton
    Footscray
    23
    1981
    Bernie Quinlan
    Fitzroy
    22
    Barry Round
    South Melbourne
    22
    1982
    Brian Wilson
    Melbourne
    23
    1983
    Ross Glendinning
    North Melbourne
    24
    1984
    Peter Moore
    Melbourne
    24
    1985
    Brad Hardie
    Footscray
    22
    1986
    Robert DiPierdomenico
    Hawthorn
    17
    Greg Williams
    Sydney
    17
    1987
    John Platten
    Hawthorn
    20
    Tony Lockett
    St Kilda
    20
    1988
    Gerard Healy
    Sydney
    20
    1989
    Paul Couch
    Geelong
    22
    1990
    Tony Liberatore
    Footscray
    18
    1991
    Jim Stynes
    Melbourne
    25
    1992
    Scott Wynd
    Footscray
    20
    1993
    Gavin Wanganeen
    Essendon
    18
    1994
    Greg Williams
    Carlton
    30
    1995
    Paul Kelly
    Sydney
    21
    1996
    James Hird
    Essendon
    21
    Michael Voss
    Brisbane Bears
    21
    1997
    Robert Harvey
    St Kilda
    26
    1998
    Robert Harvey
    St Kilda
    32
    1999
    Shane Crawford
    Hawthorn
    28
    2000
    Shane Woewodin
    Melbourne
    24
    2001
    Jason Akermanis
    Brisbane Lions
    23
    2002
    Simon Black
    Brisbane Lions
    25
    2003
    Mark Ricciuto
    Adelaide
    22
    Nathan Buckley
    Collingwood
    22
    Adam Goodes
    Sydney
    22
    2004
    Chris Judd
    West Coast
    30
    2005
    Ben Cousins
    West Coast
    20
    2006
    Adam Goodes
    Sydney
    26
    2007
    Jimmy Bartel
    Geelong
    29
    2008
    Adam Cooney
    Western Bulldogs
    24
    2009
    Gary Ablett Jr.
    Geelong
    30
    2010
    Chris Judd
    Carlton
    30
    2011
    Dane Swan
    Collingwood
    34
    2012
    Sam Mitchell
    Hawthorn
    26
    Trent Cotchin
    Richmond
    26
    2013
    Gary Ablett Jr.
    Gold Coast
    28
    2014
    Matt Priddis
    West Coast
    26
    2015
    Nat Fyfe
    Fremantle
    31
    2016
    Patrick Dangerfield
    Geelong
    35
    2017
    Dustin Martin
    Richmond
    36
    2018
    Tom Mitchell
    Hawthorn
    28
    2019
    Nat Fyfe
    Fremantle
    33
    2020
    Lachie Neale
    Brisbane Lions
    31
    2021
    Ollie Wines
    Port Adelaide
    36
    2022
    Patrick Cripps
    Carlton
    29
    2023
    Lachie Neale
    Brisbane Lions
    31

    Has anyone won more than one Brownlow Medal?

    The following players have won more than one Brownlow Medal.

    Medals
    Player
    Team
    Seasons
    3
    Haydn Bunton Sr.
    Fitzroy
    1931, 1932, 1935
    Dick Reynolds
    Essendon
    1934, 1937, 1938
    Bob Skilton
    South Melbourne
    1959, 1963, 1968
    Ian Stewart
    St Kilda / Richmond
    1965, 1966, 1971
    2
    Ivor Warne-Smith
    Melbourne
    1926, 1928
    Bill Hutchison
    Essendon
    1952, 1953
    Roy Wright
    Richmond
    1952, 1954
    Keith Greig
    North Melbourne
    1973, 1974
    Peter Moore
    Collingwood / Melbourne
    1979, 1984
    Greg Williams
    Sydney / Carlton
    1986, 1994
    Robert Harvey
    St Kilda
    1997, 1998
    Adam Goodes
    Sydney
    2003, 2006
    Chris Judd
    West Coast / Carlton
    2004, 2010
    Gary Ablett Jr.
    Geelong / Gold Coast
    2009, 2013
    Nat Fyfe

    Lachie Neale
    Fremantle

    Brisbane Lions
    2015, 2019

    2020, 2023

    Who is Chas Brownlow?

    Charlie "Chas" Brownlow was a former VFL footballer who played with Geelong between 1880-1884. Brownlow spent close to 40 years as the Geelong Football Club secretary, along with numerous roles on the VFL Board including vice-president and delegate to the Australasian Football Council. Brownlow was also the chairman of the permit and umpires committee from 1911-1922.

    The VFL season directly after his death (1924), the Brownlow Medal was named in his honour and awarded to the fairest and best player throughout the year as judged by the umpires.