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AFL Premiership Odds Betting
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2024 AFL Premiership Odds

3 July 2023

Can Collingwood win back to back flags? Our experts discuss the best teams and find the best odds for the 2024 AFL Premiership!

AFL Premiership Odds

AFL Team
Best Odds Found
Betfair Exchange
GWS
Sydney
Carlton
Melbourne
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Brisbane
Fremantle
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda
41.00 at
neds.com.au
Gold Coast
41.00 at
neds.com.au
Adelaide
Essendon
Richmond
Hawthorn
251.00 at
playup.com.au
North Melbourne
1001.00 at
playup.com.au
West Coast
1001.00 at
playup.com.au

We compare the best odds for each team across different betting sites. The Betfair exchange odds are live. The traditional bookmakers odds were last updated 3/3/24

What Betfairs' odds mean for you

Why Betfair nearly always has better odds

Betfair is an exchange, and not a traditional betting site. All bookmakers will give you less odds than what the bet is really worth, to ensure they maintain a profit. E.g. A coin toss would be 50/50 chance of winning, but the bookmaker will give you odds of 1.90, and not 2.00. This difference is called the bookmaker margin, and ensures the bookie can make a profit.

With Betfair, you are betting against other punters, not the bookmaker, so there is no margin to factor in.

What does Back mean?

Backing a bet with Betfair is the same as when you make a bet with a traditional bookmaker. You simply choose how much you wish to bet at the odds offered and if you win, you get your stake back plus your winnings. If you lose your bet, you will lose the amount you staked.

What does Lay mean?

Laying is when you act as the bookmaker. You set the odds at which you are offering other punters to bet against you, and how much you wish to stake. If another punter backs your Lay bet, then it is live. If your bet wins, you receive your stake, plus the stake of the punter who matched your bet. If you lose however, you have to pay the Liability, which covers the winnings of the other punter who matched your bet.

Read out Betfair Review for more info, or if you want to check them out yourself visit Betfair.

Who will win the 2024 AFL Grand Final

GWS are the favourites to win the 2024 AFL Grand Final, with the best odds from all betting sites across the country paying 5.25 for them to win their first ever premiership. GWS are at the top of the ladder (as of round 4), however they have had a pretty easy start to the season. After belting North Melbourne and West Coast, the only other win they have had was against Collingwood - who are in form slump.

The orange tsunami may be making some big sounds in the Western Sydney suburbs, but when they start playing top 8 teams we will see how they are really faring.

Best odds for GWS to win the flag are 5.25 at unibet.com.au

Sydney are the second favourite to win this years AFL Premiership, making it a fully NSW favoured Grand Final - for the first time ever. While they'll whinge it's at the MCG, I don't see the Swans getting to the Grand Final, especially after losing to Richmond.

They have had a decent start beating Melbourne and Collingwood, and have an easy start to the year with upcoming games against West Coast, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn all in a row. However after this when they begin to play top 8 teams that have earnt their spots, it will be interesting to see if they are up to the task.

Best odds for Sydney are 6.50 at playup.com.au

Who we think will win the 2024 AFL Premiership?

Carlton

We are still strong on board the Flaggers bandwagon, even after we've had a few rounds to see how the teams are positioned. To date (as of Round 4) Carlton are still undefeated, however they haven't been playing dominant at all and they've already copped a few injuries. The Blues really came out as premiership contenders after beating the Lions by 1 point in a thriller in the Opening Round. Since then, we've seen that beating Brisbane is no big feat, and the Blues also nearly lost to Richmond - who to be fair, are playing surprisingly well and beat Sydney.

Their forward line is proving very dominant at this stage, and with guns like Cripps, Cerra and Walsh in the middle, they are going to be tough to beat all year, even with a few casualties. I don't see them smashing any team, but I think they will get the job done when it is needed.

Best odds for Carlton are 8.00 at betm.com.au

2024 Historical AFL Premiership Tips

Before Opening Round Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership winner before Opening Round was for Carlton for 9.00 at playup.com.au

29/2/2024

"The "Flaggers" are another favourite to win the premiership. The Blues had a gallant effort in the 2023 finals series, but went to sleep after the first quarter of the Preliminary Final, which saw the Lions edge back piece by piece and take the victory somewhat comfortably.

The Baggers have received the fifth hardest draw for 2024 according to AFL, and are lining up twice against Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong. Although, the Blues' have scored the best in terms of Thursday and Friday night games, with half of their first 16 games played on the primetime spot, and four of those will be played at the G - which will give a pulse to their supporters.

They also have a very strong team with a lot of eyes on Sam Walsh after his stellar finals series, big Charlie slotting everything up forward - and in my opinion, the current best player in the league, Patrick Cripps.

We think 2024 will be the year Carlton break their almost 30 year premiership drought".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 4 was for Carlton is 8.00 at betm.com.au

3/4/2024

Round 11 Tip

We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 11.

Round 17 Tip

We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 17.

Round 24 Tip

We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 24.

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Previous Premiership winners and end of season rankings

    Year
    AFL Premiership Winner
    End of Year Ranking
    2023
    Collingwood
    1st outright
    2022
    Geelong
    1st outright
    2021
    Melbourne
    1st outright
    2020
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2019
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2018
    West Coast Eagles
    2nd
    2017
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2016
    Western Bulldogs
    7th (winner on %)
    2015
    Hawthorn
    3rd
    2014
    Hawthorn
    2nd (winner on %)
    2013
    Hawthorn
    1st outright
    2012
    Sydney
    3rd (winner on %)


    Source - AFL.com.au

    End of season ranking and premiership winner relevance

    Takeaways:

    • In the last 12 AFL seasons, 6 teams have finished the home and away season with the solely most points, and not by percentage. 4 of these 6 teams won the Premiership for that year.
    • Whenever a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only, they did not win the AFL Grand Final (6 seasons).
    • Of these 6 seasons, the team that finished 3rd in the home and away season won the Grand Final on 4 occasions, or 66% of the time.
    • The last time a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only and went on to win the Grand Final, was Essendon back in 1993. Since then, there has been nine AFL seasons where the top team has finished on top of the ladder with equal points, but higher percentage, and not won the flag.
    • Out of the last 12 seasons, the team that has finished 3rd has won the flag 5 times, or 42% of the time.
    • Only once has a team outside the top 3 won the Grand Final since 1998 - and that was Western Bulldogs fairy tale 2016 season, where they finished 7th.

    Conclusion:

    Going by recent AFL history, if a team finishes on top by points and not percentage, that gives them a 67% chance of winning the flag.

    If a team finishes on top, but only by percentage, they are unlikely to win the Premiership flag. Going by the last 30 years of AFL history, that would give a team finishing on top by percentage only a 10% chance of winning the flag.

    FAQ

    How do I bet on the 2024 AFL Premiership Winner?

    • Click on one of the betting sites links on this page
    • Sign up (if you don't already have an account)
    • Head to the Sports section
    • Find Australian Rules
    • Select Futures, or AFL 2024 (AFL will usually take you to the current games this week)
    • Select AFL Premiership Winner
    • Select the team you think will win
    • Deposit money and choose you stake
    • Place your bet!

    When is the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

    The 2024 AFL Grand Final will be played on Saturday, September 28 at the traditional time of 2:30pm AEST.

    Who is the favourite to win the 2024 AFL Premiership?

    GWS are the favourite to win the AFL Premiership for 2024 and are paying 5.50 and under, from betting sites around the country.