AFL Premiership Odds Betting
Article

2024 AFL Premiership Odds & Tips

Sep 18, 2024

Are Brisbane unstoppable? Our experts discuss the best teams and find the best odds for the 2024 AFL Premiership!

Jimmy Mason
Editor & "AFL Tipster"

AFL Premiership Odds

AFL Team
Best Odds Found
Sydney
2.50 at Betr
Geelong
3.75 at Betr
Brisbane
4.25 at Sportsbet
Port Adelaide
10.00 at TAB

We compare the best odds for each team across different betting sites. Last updated 17/9/24

Who will win the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

Sydney

The Swans are not the unstoppable force they appeared back in Round 15 when they were 13 - 1. Not only did they show that they could bleed, but that they are very much capable of having their pants pulled down and spanked in public, after the absolute blowout from Port.

Still, like all good baby boomers will tell you, a good spanking turns you into a good adult. After the disgraceful effort against the Power, the Swans haven't lost a game, albeit there has only been 3 games and all were against bottom 10 teams.

If you want to be a glass half full kind of person, it was against Collingwood and Essendon who had to win to make finals - and Adelaide who for some reason decided to have a crack at the end of the year when it was too late.

The Swans are the favourite to bring home the flag, but in my opinion the stink of their past performances is still way too fresh.

Best odds for Sydney are 2.50 at Betr

Port Adelaide

Alike Sydney, the Port have had a very strong run home into finals after getting handed their biggest loss of the year by Brisbane back in Round 15, by a lazy 79 points. Since then, they have won every single one of there 9 games, including 3 against top 8 teams (Bulldogs, Carlton and Geelong).

Finishing at a very advantageous second place, Port are the much safer bet in the first qualifying final against Geelong as they'll have the safety of the home ground - and we know Geelong prefer to be house cats. With a week off, they'll only need to have another win at home against either Sydney, GWS, Brisbane or Carlton.

Personally, I think they'll be facing off against the Lions in the Prelim which will be a tough game, but I think they will get the upper hand with their explosive midfield - especially with Horne-Francis proving to be more of an X-Factor than other previous number one draft pick Cam Rayner.

Best odds for Port Adelaide are 10.00 at TAB

Brisbane

They started the season like a burnt out ember and were 2 - 5 at round 7! Still, last years Grand Finalists managed to turn this around and have been a house on fire since.

Their win-loss-draw record since then is 12-3-1. The Lions did drop a few games late in the season, against the late surging Collingwood and the every threatening Orange Tsunami, which ruined their double chance as they now are stuck outside the top 4.

Winning outside the top 4 is notoriously difficult, and in a season as ridiculously tight as this one, I think it will be too unattainable to collect 4 wins in a row.

Best odds for Brisbane are 4.25 at Sportsbet

Geelong

Absolutely no stranger to finals, the Cats are one of the most successful teams in recent years, winning flags in 07, 09, 11 and 22. While nobody is still around from the early games, they still have an incredible tenacity to be competitive each year.

Although they have had a commendable year finishing in 3rd place, Geelong's win loss ratio to finalist teams this year is 5 - 5. And, four of those wins (of finalist teams) were consecutive at the start of the year. In more recent times, Geelong are 1 - 5 against the top teams.

Although they have a strong list all around and are very favourable at GHMBA, with that win loss record, I don't like their chances of winning 3 consecutive games, especially when they are playing in Adelaide or Sydney.

Best odds for Geelong are 3.75 at Betr

2024 Historical AFL Premiership Tips

Before Opening Round Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership winner before Opening Round was for Carlton for 9.00 at PlayUp

29/2/2024

"The "Flaggers" are another favourite to win the premiership. The Blues had a gallant effort in the 2023 finals series, but went to sleep after the first quarter of the Preliminary Final, which saw the Lions edge back piece by piece and take the victory somewhat comfortably.

The Baggers have received the fifth hardest draw for 2024 according to AFL, and are lining up twice against Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong. Although, the Blues' have scored the best in terms of Thursday and Friday night games, with half of their first 16 games played on the primetime spot, and four of those will be played at the G - which will give a pulse to their supporters.

They also have a very strong team with a lot of eyes on Sam Walsh after his stellar finals series, big Charlie slotting everything up forward - and in my opinion, the current best player in the league, Patrick Cripps.

We think 2024 will be the year Carlton break their almost 30 year premiership drought".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 4 was for Carlton for 8.00 at BetM

3/4/2024

"We are still strong on board the Flaggers bandwagon, even after we've had a few rounds to see how the teams are positioned. To date (as of Round 4) Carlton are still undefeated, however they haven't been playing dominant at all and they've already copped a few injuries. The Blues really came out as premiership contenders after beating the Lions by 1 point in a thriller in the Opening Round. Since then, we've seen that beating Brisbane is no big feat, and the Blues also nearly lost to Richmond - who to be fair, are playing surprisingly well and beat Sydney.

Their forward line is proving very dominant at this stage, and with guns like Cripps, Cerra and Walsh in the middle, they are going to be tough to beat all year, even with a few casualties. I don't see them smashing any team, but I think they will get the job done when it is needed".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 11 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 11 is for Essendon for 17.00 at PlayUp

20/5/2024

"It's been a long time since anyone has said that without it being a joke. But, the baby bombers are playing a similar type of footy as Collingwood were last year, and are getting some positive exposure in the tight thrilling games. Their kryptonite over the last few years was only playing 3 quarters and losing spectacularly because of this.

The Dons only played bad in one game this year (and it was bad), otherwise they have showed as much positivity as Sydney has, and only lost that in the last half of the last quarter.

On their day, Essendon are as good as anyone of them and they are the only team this year that has not lost a game in Melbourne. At the bookies odds (currently 23.00) it's a decent bet as there is a good chance they will get to the later stage finals - so you can always hedge it".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 16 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 16 is for Carlton, 4.50 at Unibet

25/6/2024

Premiership Winner - Carlton

"While it was fun to consider Essendon winning the flag for a period, I'm back on the Blues bandwagon. Carlton were our pick most of the year, and they have now come together well as a team and are looking like the only threat to Sydney.

Yes, it does feel a bit insulting to say Sydney won't win, and massive kudos to Sydney, they are destroying teams and have done so for the top rated teams early in the season. However, they have a very easy run home and I think they may get complacent. Carlton have had more close game exposure, as have Collingwood and Essendon - and they will all fare better at the G. Sydney have back to back Friday night games against Essendon and Collingwood at the end of the year, which will wake them up a bit. I'm tipping one of these will be an upset, and their odds to increase after this.

In the meantime, the Blues are a solid choice - especially if you got on at the start of the year".

Top 4 - Essendon

"No surprises here, I'm backing Essendon to sneak into the top 4. The Bombers have a little leeway on their spot at the minute, but are repping one of the worst percentages in the top 12. If they fall below 4, they're more chance to fall below 8 at this stage.

However, a lot of the teams in 3-12 do not have an easy run home, obviously because that's half the league so they all have to play each other a bit. There will be wins and losses for all these teams, and Essendon aren't one to smash a team, but they are only after the 4 points on every single game. I think they will retain their top 4 position".

Best current odds for Essendon are 3.00 at Neds

Wooden Spoon (Least Wins) - Richmond

"Richmond have a tougher run home than Kangaroos, and North are dying for wins at this stage. Plus, we know that North prefer to win a game than receive a potential generational talent in the draft. Richmond, definitely more likely to tank.

I don't see Richmond winning a game for the rest of the year, and they do play Kangaroos so that would put them even stevens. North also play West Coast at home which is very winnable, and I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak another win in against Gold Coast or Bulldogs".

Best current odds for Richmond are 3.40 at Sportsbet

End of Season Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership at the end of the season is for GWS, 6.00 at Neds

28/8/2024

"I was a bit devo last year as I jumped on the Tsunami bandwagon back then also, but I think they are a massive chance this year. They've been in some fine form lately, especially their stars including Greene, Green, Hogan and also Daniels has been electric. Big players usually step up for the big games in finals, and they should all have their confidence up.

Playing Sydney first up may have been daunting two months ago, but I think it is nearly the easiest hit out due to their current form - besides playing Carlton. It's a tough time when the bottom of the top 8 are scarier than the top 4. The home ground advantage won't affect GWS as much as it is already in Sydney, for their 50 supports to come across town for. Although Swans are the favourite, I'm backing in the Giants for week 1.

With a week off and straight into the prelim, the Giants will have to face either Port, Geelong, Bulldogs or Hawks, at their own home. Port and Geelong don't travel all that well and GWS had their measure this year already. Bulldogs and the Hawks luck of winning three games in a row in finals also seems like a bit of a stretch to me, although the Dogs are definitely a danger team in my eyes - but they've barely put together more than two wins in a row this year.

The Giants were robbed last year, and it will be very fresh in the memory. They've got the upper hand coming into the finals, and I can see this year them notching the first premiership ever into their history books".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Similar articles

Brownlow Medal 2024 Betting Odds, Tips & Insights
Sep 2, 2024

Who will win the 2024 Brownlow Medal? See our extensive statistical insights of previous winners, along with the best odds found over all betting sites

AFL Rising Star Betting Odds, Tips & Insights 2024
Sep 2, 2024

Who will win the 2024 AFL Rising Star? Our experts investigate the best youngsters in the great game!

Coleman Medal Betting Odds & Tips 2024
Aug 26, 2024

Who will win the 2024 AFL Coleman Medal? Our experts show the best odds and tips for 2024's #1 goal kicker

Previous Premiership winners and end of season rankings

    Year
    AFL Premiership Winner
    End of Year Ranking
    2023
    Collingwood
    1st outright
    2022
    Geelong
    1st outright
    2021
    Melbourne
    1st outright
    2020
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2019
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2018
    West Coast Eagles
    2nd
    2017
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2016
    Western Bulldogs
    7th (winner on %)
    2015
    Hawthorn
    3rd
    2014
    Hawthorn
    2nd (winner on %)
    2013
    Hawthorn
    1st outright
    2012
    Sydney
    3rd (winner on %)


    Source - AFL.com.au

    End of season ranking and premiership winner relevance
    Mason Kelliher
    Mason Kelliher - Editor-in-Chief

    Takeaways:

    • In the last 12 AFL seasons, 6 teams have finished the home and away season with the solely most points, and not by percentage. 4 of these 6 teams won the Premiership for that year.
    • Whenever a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only, they did not win the AFL Grand Final (6 seasons).
    • Of these 6 seasons, the team that finished 3rd in the home and away season won the Grand Final on 4 occasions, or 66% of the time.
    • The last time a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only and went on to win the Grand Final, was Essendon back in 1993. Since then, there has been nine AFL seasons where the top team has finished on top of the ladder with equal points, but higher percentage, and not won the flag.
    • Out of the last 12 seasons, the team that has finished 3rd has won the flag 5 times, or 42% of the time.
    • Only once has a team outside the top 3 won the Grand Final since 1998 - and that was Western Bulldogs fairy tale 2016 season, where they finished 7th.

    Conclusion:

    Going by recent AFL history, if a team finishes on top by points and not percentage, that gives them a 67% chance of winning the flag.

    If a team finishes on top, but only by percentage, they are unlikely to win the Premiership flag. Going by the last 30 years of AFL history, that would give a team finishing on top by percentage only a 10% chance of winning the flag.