AFL Premiership Odds Betting
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2024 AFL Premiership Odds & Tips

Jul 22, 2024

Can Collingwood win back to back flags? Our experts discuss the best teams and find the best odds for the 2024 AFL Premiership!

Jimmy Mason
Associate Editor & AFL Tipster

AFL Premiership Odds

AFL Team
Best Odds Found
Sydney
3.50 at
Chasebet
Carlton
4.50 at
Unibet
Brisbane
5.00 at
Unibet
GWS
10.00 at
Neds
Geelong
13.00 at
PlayUp
Fremantle
13.00 at
Neds
Western Bulldogs
18.00 at
PlayUp
Hawthorn
34.00 at
BlueBet
Port Adelaide
41.00 at
Bet Right
Essendon
51.00 at
Chasebet
Melbourne
67.00 at
EliteBet

We compare the best odds for each team across different betting sites. Last updated 22/7/24

Who will win the 2024 AFL Grand Final

Sydney are the favourite to win this years AFL Premiership. In the early-mid part of the season, Sydney looked unstoppable while genuine contenders such as Brisbane, Geelong and Carlton fell apart a bit.

Now though, Sydney have looked a bit vulnerable and have registered a couple of losses to Fremantle and St Kilda recently, while Geelong, Brisbane and Carlton have united stronger. I think this reality check is good timing for the Swans, as they know they cannot be complacent as we edge closer to finals.

Best odds for Sydney are 3.50 at Chasebet

Brisbane are started the season like a burnt out ember, but have reversed this lately and are currently a house on fire. The Lions haven't lost a game since April, and toppled premiership favourite Sydney.

Best odds for Brisbane are 5.00 at Unibet

Our AFL Premiership Tips

Our 2024 AFL Premiership Tips

Jimmy Mason
Jimmy Mason - Associate Editor & AFL Tipster

25/5/2024

Premiership Winner - Carlton

While it was fun to consider Essendon winning the flag for a period, I'm back on the Blues bandwagon. Carlton were our pick most of the year, and they have now come together well as a team and are looking like the only threat to Sydney.

Yes, it does feel a bit insulting to say Sydney won't win, and massive kudos to Sydney, they are destroying teams and have done so for the top rated teams early in the season. However, they have a very easy run home and I think they may get complacent. Carlton have had more close game exposure, as have Collingwood and Essendon - and they will all fare better at the G. Sydney have back to back Friday night games against Essendon and Collingwood at the end of the year, which will wake them up a bit. I'm tipping one of these will be an upset, and their odds to increase after this.

In the meantime, the Blues are a solid choice - especially if you got on at the start of the year.

Best current odds for Carlton are 4.50 at Unibet

Top 4 - Essendon

No surprises here, I'm backing Essendon to sneak into the top 4. The Bombers have a little leeway on their spot at the minute, but are repping one of the worst percentages in the top 12. If they fall below 4, they're more chance to fall below 8 at this stage.

However, a lot of the teams in 3-12 do not have an easy run home, obviously because that's half the league so they all have to play each other a bit. There will be wins and losses for all these teams, and Essendon aren't one to smash a team, but they are only after the 4 points on every single game. I think they will retain their top 4 position.

Best current odds for Essendon are 3.00 at Neds

Wooden Spoon (Least Wins) - Richmond

Richmond have a tougher run home than Kangaroos, and North are dying for wins at this stage. Plus, we know that North prefer to win a game than receive a potential generational talent in the draft. Richmond, definitely more likely to tank.

I don't see Richmond winning a game for the rest of the year, and they do play Kangaroos so that would put them even stevens. North also play West Coast at home which is very winnable, and I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak another win in against Gold Coast or Bulldogs.

Best current odds for Richmond are 3.40 at Sportsbet

2024 Historical AFL Premiership Tips

Before Opening Round Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership winner before Opening Round was for Carlton for 9.00 at PlayUp

29/2/2024

"The "Flaggers" are another favourite to win the premiership. The Blues had a gallant effort in the 2023 finals series, but went to sleep after the first quarter of the Preliminary Final, which saw the Lions edge back piece by piece and take the victory somewhat comfortably.

The Baggers have received the fifth hardest draw for 2024 according to AFL, and are lining up twice against Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong. Although, the Blues' have scored the best in terms of Thursday and Friday night games, with half of their first 16 games played on the primetime spot, and four of those will be played at the G - which will give a pulse to their supporters.

They also have a very strong team with a lot of eyes on Sam Walsh after his stellar finals series, big Charlie slotting everything up forward - and in my opinion, the current best player in the league, Patrick Cripps.

We think 2024 will be the year Carlton break their almost 30 year premiership drought".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 4 was for Carlton for 8.00 at BetM

3/4/2024

"We are still strong on board the Flaggers bandwagon, even after we've had a few rounds to see how the teams are positioned. To date (as of Round 4) Carlton are still undefeated, however they haven't been playing dominant at all and they've already copped a few injuries. The Blues really came out as premiership contenders after beating the Lions by 1 point in a thriller in the Opening Round. Since then, we've seen that beating Brisbane is no big feat, and the Blues also nearly lost to Richmond - who to be fair, are playing surprisingly well and beat Sydney.

Their forward line is proving very dominant at this stage, and with guns like Cripps, Cerra and Walsh in the middle, they are going to be tough to beat all year, even with a few casualties. I don't see them smashing any team, but I think they will get the job done when it is needed".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 11 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 11 is for Essendon for 17.00 at PlayUp

20/5/2024

"It's been a long time since anyone has said that without it being a joke. But, the baby bombers are playing a similar type of footy as Collingwood were last year, and are getting some positive exposure in the tight thrilling games. Their kryptonite over the last few years was only playing 3 quarters and losing spectacularly because of this.

The Dons only played bad in one game this year (and it was bad), otherwise they have showed as much positivity as Sydney has, and only lost that in the last half of the last quarter.

On their day, Essendon are as good as anyone of them and they are the only team this year that has not lost a game in Melbourne. At the bookies odds (currently 23.00) it's a decent bet as there is a good chance they will get to the later stage finals - so you can always hedge it".

Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 16 Tip

Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 16 is for Carlton are 4.50 at Unibet

25/6/25

Premiership Winner - Carlton

"While it was fun to consider Essendon winning the flag for a period, I'm back on the Blues bandwagon. Carlton were our pick most of the year, and they have now come together well as a team and are looking like the only threat to Sydney.

Yes, it does feel a bit insulting to say Sydney won't win, and massive kudos to Sydney, they are destroying teams and have done so for the top rated teams early in the season. However, they have a very easy run home and I think they may get complacent. Carlton have had more close game exposure, as have Collingwood and Essendon - and they will all fare better at the G. Sydney have back to back Friday night games against Essendon and Collingwood at the end of the year, which will wake them up a bit. I'm tipping one of these will be an upset, and their odds to increase after this.

In the meantime, the Blues are a solid choice - especially if you got on at the start of the year".

Top 4 - Essendon

"No surprises here, I'm backing Essendon to sneak into the top 4. The Bombers have a little leeway on their spot at the minute, but are repping one of the worst percentages in the top 12. If they fall below 4, they're more chance to fall below 8 at this stage.

However, a lot of the teams in 3-12 do not have an easy run home, obviously because that's half the league so they all have to play each other a bit. There will be wins and losses for all these teams, and Essendon aren't one to smash a team, but they are only after the 4 points on every single game. I think they will retain their top 4 position".

Best current odds for Essendon are 3.00 at Neds

Wooden Spoon (Least Wins) - Richmond

"Richmond have a tougher run home than Kangaroos, and North are dying for wins at this stage. Plus, we know that North prefer to win a game than receive a potential generational talent in the draft. Richmond, definitely more likely to tank.

I don't see Richmond winning a game for the rest of the year, and they do play Kangaroos so that would put them even stevens. North also play West Coast at home which is very winnable, and I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak another win in against Gold Coast or Bulldogs".

Best current odds for Richmond are 3.40 at Sportsbet

Round 24 Tip

We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 24.

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Previous Premiership winners and end of season rankings

    Year
    AFL Premiership Winner
    End of Year Ranking
    2023
    Collingwood
    1st outright
    2022
    Geelong
    1st outright
    2021
    Melbourne
    1st outright
    2020
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2019
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2018
    West Coast Eagles
    2nd
    2017
    Richmond
    3rd (winner on %)
    2016
    Western Bulldogs
    7th (winner on %)
    2015
    Hawthorn
    3rd
    2014
    Hawthorn
    2nd (winner on %)
    2013
    Hawthorn
    1st outright
    2012
    Sydney
    3rd (winner on %)


    Source - AFL.com.au

    End of season ranking and premiership winner relevance
    Mason Kelliher
    Mason Kelliher - Editor-in-Chief & AFL Tipster

    Takeaways:

    • In the last 12 AFL seasons, 6 teams have finished the home and away season with the solely most points, and not by percentage. 4 of these 6 teams won the Premiership for that year.
    • Whenever a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only, they did not win the AFL Grand Final (6 seasons).
    • Of these 6 seasons, the team that finished 3rd in the home and away season won the Grand Final on 4 occasions, or 66% of the time.
    • The last time a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only and went on to win the Grand Final, was Essendon back in 1993. Since then, there has been nine AFL seasons where the top team has finished on top of the ladder with equal points, but higher percentage, and not won the flag.
    • Out of the last 12 seasons, the team that has finished 3rd has won the flag 5 times, or 42% of the time.
    • Only once has a team outside the top 3 won the Grand Final since 1998 - and that was Western Bulldogs fairy tale 2016 season, where they finished 7th.

    Conclusion:

    Going by recent AFL history, if a team finishes on top by points and not percentage, that gives them a 67% chance of winning the flag.

    If a team finishes on top, but only by percentage, they are unlikely to win the Premiership flag. Going by the last 30 years of AFL history, that would give a team finishing on top by percentage only a 10% chance of winning the flag.

    FAQ

    How do I bet on the 2024 AFL Premiership Winner?
    • Click on one of the betting sites links on this page
    • Sign up (if you don't already have an account)
    • Head to the Sports section
    • Find Australian Rules
    • Select Futures, or AFL 2024 (AFL will usually take you to the current games this week)
    • Select AFL Premiership Winner
    • Select the team you think will win
    • Deposit money and choose you stake
    • Place your bet!
    When is the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

    The 2024 AFL Grand Final will be played on Saturday, September 28 at the traditional time of 2:30pm AEST.

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