2024 AFL Premiership Betting Odds | Why we're backing Carlton

AFL Premiership Odds

AFL Team	Best Odds Found
GWS	6.00 at bluebet.com.au
Sydney	7.00 at playup.com.au
Geelong	7.00 at betr.com.au
Carlton	7.50 at betright.com.au
Melbourne	8.50 at colossalbet.com.au
Collingwood	9.00 at betright.com.au
Brisbane	11.00 at betm.com.au
Port Adelaide	12.00 at chasebet.com.au
Fremantle	41.00 at chasebet.com.au
Western Bulldogs	51.00 at colossalbet.com.au
Essendon	51.00 at colossalbet.com.au
St Kilda	81.00 at neds.com.au
Gold Coast	81.00 at bluebet.com.au
Adelaide	151.00 at betm.com.au
Richmond	251.00 at chasebet.com.au
Hawthorn	501.00 at colossalbet.com.au
West Coast	751.00 at playup.com.au
North Melbourne	2001.00 at playup.com.au

We compare the best odds for each team across different betting sites. Last updated 22/4/24

Who will win the 2024 AFL Grand Final

GWS are the favourites to win the 2024 AFL Grand Final, with the best odds from all betting sites across the country paying 6.00 for them to win their first ever premiership. GWS are at the top of the ladder (as of round 4), however they have had a pretty easy start to the season. After belting North Melbourne and West Coast, the only other win they have had was against Collingwood - who are in form slump.

The orange tsunami may be making some big sounds in the Western Sydney suburbs, but when they start playing top 8 teams we will see how they are really faring.

Best odds for GWS to win the flag are 6.00 at bluebet.com.au

Sydney are the second favourite to win this years AFL Premiership, making it a fully NSW favoured Grand Final - for the first time ever. While they'll whinge it's at the MCG, I don't see the Swans getting to the Grand Final, especially after losing to Richmond.

They have had a decent start beating Melbourne and Collingwood, and have an easy start to the year with upcoming games against West Coast, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn all in a row. However after this when they begin to play top 8 teams that have earned their spots, it will be interesting to see if they are up to the task.

Best odds for Sydney are 7.00 at playup.com.au

Who we think will win the 2024 AFL Premiership?

Jimmy Mason

Carlton

We are still strong on board the Flaggers bandwagon, even after we've had a few rounds to see how the teams are positioned. To date (as of Round 4) Carlton are still undefeated, however they haven't been playing dominant at all and they've already copped a few injuries. The Blues really came out as premiership contenders after beating the Lions by 1 point in a thriller in the Opening Round. Since then, we've seen that beating Brisbane is no big feat, and the Blues also nearly lost to Richmond - who to be fair, are playing surprisingly well and beat Sydney.

Their forward line is proving very dominant at this stage, and with guns like Cripps, Cerra and Walsh in the middle, they are going to be tough to beat all year, even with a few casualties. I don't see them smashing any team, but I think they will get the job done when it is needed.

Best current odds for Carlton are 8.50 at betm.com.au

2024 Historical AFL Premiership Tips

Before Opening Round Tip: Our tip for the AFL Premiership winner before Opening Round was for Carlton for 9.00 at playup.com.au
29/2/2024
"The "Flaggers" are another favourite to win the premiership. The Blues had a gallant effort in the 2023 finals series, but went to sleep after the first quarter of the Preliminary Final, which saw the Lions edge back piece by piece and take the victory somewhat comfortably.
The Baggers have received the fifth hardest draw for 2024 according to AFL, and are lining up twice against Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide and Geelong. Although, the Blues' have scored the best in terms of Thursday and Friday night games, with half of their first 16 games played on the primetime spot, and four of those will be played at the G - which will give a pulse to their supporters.
They also have a very strong team with a lot of eyes on Sam Walsh after his stellar finals series, big Charlie slotting everything up forward - and in my opinion, the current best player in the league, Patrick Cripps.
We think 2024 will be the year Carlton break their almost 30 year premiership drought".
Jimmy - AFL Tipster & Betting Sites Expert

Round 4 Tip: Our tip for the AFL Premiership before Round 4 was for Carlton is 8.00 at betm.com.au
3/4/2024

Round 11 Tip: We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 11.

Round 17 Tip: We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 17.

Round 24 Tip: We will give this updated AFL Premiership before Round 24.

Previous Premiership winners and end of season rankings

Year	AFL Premiership Winner	End of Year Ranking
2023	Collingwood	1st outright
2022	Geelong	1st outright
2021	Melbourne	1st outright
2020	Richmond	3rd (winner on %)
2019	Richmond	3rd (winner on %)
2018	West Coast Eagles	2nd
2017	Richmond	3rd (winner on %)
2016	Western Bulldogs	7th (winner on %)
2015	Hawthorn	3rd
2014	Hawthorn	2nd (winner on %)
2013	Hawthorn	1st outright
2012	Sydney	3rd (winner on %)

Source - AFL.com.au

End of season ranking and premiership winner relevance

Mason Kelliher

Takeaways:

In the last 12 AFL seasons, 6 teams have finished the home and away season with the solely most points, and not by percentage. 4 of these 6 teams won the Premiership for that year.
Whenever a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only, they did not win the AFL Grand Final (6 seasons).
Of these 6 seasons, the team that finished 3rd in the home and away season won the Grand Final on 4 occasions, or 66% of the time.
The last time a team finished on top of the ladder by percentage only and went on to win the Grand Final, was Essendon back in 1993. Since then, there has been nine AFL seasons where the top team has finished on top of the ladder with equal points, but higher percentage, and not won the flag.
Out of the last 12 seasons, the team that has finished 3rd has won the flag 5 times, or 42% of the time.
Only once has a team outside the top 3 won the Grand Final since 1998 - and that was Western Bulldogs fairy tale 2016 season, where they finished 7th.

Conclusion:

Going by recent AFL history, if a team finishes on top by points and not percentage, that gives them a 67% chance of winning the flag.

If a team finishes on top, but only by percentage, they are unlikely to win the Premiership flag. Going by the last 30 years of AFL history, that would give a team finishing on top by percentage only a 10% chance of winning the flag.

Best AFL Premiership Winner Odds from All Betting Sites.

FAQ

Where can I bet on the 2024 AFL Premiership Winner?

The following betting sites have markets to bet on the 2024 AFL Premiership Winner.

How do I bet on the 2024 AFL Premiership Winner?

Click on one of the betting sites links on this page
Sign up (if you don't already have an account)
Head to the Sports section
Find Australian Rules
Select Futures, or AFL 2024 (AFL will usually take you to the current games this week)
Select AFL Premiership Winner
Select the team you think will win
Deposit money and choose you stake
Place your bet!

When is the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

The 2024 AFL Grand Final will be played on Saturday, September 28 at the traditional time of 2:30pm AEST.

Who is the favourite to win the 2024 AFL Premiership?

GWS are the favourite to win the AFL Premiership for 2024 and are paying 5.50 and under, from betting sites around the country.

2024 AFL Premiership Odds

AFL Premiership Odds

Who will win the 2024 AFL Grand Final

2024 Historical AFL Premiership Tips

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Previous Premiership winners and end of season rankings

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