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Academy Award Betting Odds
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Academy Awards Odds 2024

2 January 2024

Who will win the Oscar this year? Our experts analyse the best odds, best bookies and the most popular films of the year

Academy Award Best Picture Odds

Winning Film
Best Odds Found
Oppenheimer
The Holdovers
11.00 at palmerbet.com
Poor Things
13.00 at neds.com.au
Barbie
21.00 at neds.com.au
Anatomy of a Fall
21.00 at neds.com.au
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest
41.00 at neds.com.au
American Fiction
41.00 at palmerbet.com
Past Lives
51.00 at neds.com.au
Maestro
77.00 at neds.com.au

We compare the best odds for each film across different betting sites.

Last updated 24/1/24

Who will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?

Oppenheimer is the clear favourite to take out the most prestigious award for film in 2023. The epic biopic directed by heavyweight director Christopher Nolan has a star-studded cast featuring Cillian Murphy, Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey Jnr and Gary Oldman to name a few. Cillian Murphy is also the favourite to win and has the lowest odds for the Academy Award for the Best Actor.

Oppenheimer thus far, has been Nolan's most critical, and definitely most commercially successful, film to date. The Dark Knight director has had two nominations for Best Picture in the past with Inception in 2010, and Dunkirk in 2017. With Oppenheimer being the third-highest grossing film of 2023, Nolan may finally get the elusive Best Picture Oscar. He is also the favourite to win the Academy Award for the Best Director, so there is a decent chance he will come home with a few Oscar's.

Best odds for Oppenheimer are 1.11 at palmerbet.com

Killers of the Flower Moon is another favourite film to take out the Academy Award for Best Picture of 2023. Coming to us by legendary director Martin Scorsese, the film stars Scorsese's favourite actors he has collaborated with, Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio.

Scorsese has also never won the Academy Award for Best Picture, but has been nominated three times (all in the past 11 years) with Hugo (2012), The Wolf of Wall Street (2014) and The Irishman (2020).

Scorsese himself has won an Academy Award for Best Director (The Departed, 2007), and three of the cast of Killers of the Flower Moon have won the Academy Award for Best Actor, including Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant 2016), Robert De Niro (Raging Bull 1981) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale 2022).

Best odds for Killers of the Flower Moon are 31.00 at topsport.com.au

Why Poor Things will win Best Picture

Poor Things is a fantasy black-comedy directed by Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone. While the film had little commercial appeal, it is considered to be one of the most unique films in the past decade - which is usually a plus in the Academy's eyes.

However, that is just the icing on the cake. The very simple reason we are backing Poor Things, (especially at higher odds) is that is the highest IMDb rated film to be released this year. As shown in the table below, films with the highest IMDb rating for their respective year, have won the Academy Award for Best Picture 50% of the time in the past decade. Nearly all of the rest of the time, the film that won has had the second lowest IMDb rating out of their fellow nominees, but are generally a unique picture. Well, Poor Things ticks both these boxes.

Protagonist Emma Stone also has the lowest odds and is the favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Actress for starring in Poor Things. Stone has won this award previously with her lead role in La La Land (2016).

Best odds for Poor Things are 13.00 at neds.com.au

IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes Ratings for Best Picture Favourites

Film
IMDb Rating
Rotten Tomatoes
Combined Score*
Oppenheimer
8.4
93%
88.5/100
Killers of the Flower Moon
7.8
93%
85.5/100
Poor Things
8.5
93%
89/100
The Holdovers
8.0
96%
88/100
American Fiction
8.2
92%
87/100
Past Lives
8.0
96%
88/100
The Zone of Interest
8.0
92%
86/100
Barbie
6.9
88%
78.5/100
Maestro
6.8
79%
73.5/100
The Color Purple
7.8
87%
82.5/100

*Combined Score is the total calculated by adding up the IMDb Rating and the Rotten Tomatoes score for each film.

IMDb Rating for Best Picture Winners

Year
Film
IMDb Rating
Year Rating*
2022
Everything Everywhere All at Once
8.2
1st
2021
CODA
8.0
1st
2020
Nomadland
7.3
7th
(8 Total)
2019
Parasite
8.5
1st
2018
Green Book
8.2
1st
2017
The Shape of Water
7.3
8th
(9 Total)
2016
Moonlight
7.4
8th
(9 Total)
2015
Spotlight
8.1
1st
2014
Birdman
7.7
7th
(8 Total)
2013
12 Years a Slave
8.1
2nd

*Year Rating is how high a film was rated on IMDb, compared to other films that were nominated for Best Picture for that year. E.g. in 2013, the only film to be rated higher than 12 Years a Slave (that was nominated for Best Picture) was The Wolf of Wall Street, which had a rating of 8.2.

Relevance of IMDb Rating and Best Picture Winners

Key Findings

  • Five times in the past 10 years (50%), has a film won Best Picture, that has had the highest IMDb rating of it's fellow nominees.
  • Four times in the past 10 years (40%), has a film had the second lowest IMDb rating of its fellow nominees, and has won the Best Picture Academy Award.
  • Once in the past 10 years, has a film not ranked in first or second last IMDb rating, won the Academy Award. And honestly, that year (2013) The Wolf of Wall Street was robbed.

Conclusion

You're probably aware that the IMDb rating is calculated by users voting for a film out of 10. Although there is some weighting involved so that certain demographics (e.g. teenagers), don't sway the votes due to more voters. And it's fair to say "what the heck does the general population know what's a good film".

Well, there is a reason all Oscar winners start off by thanking the Academy. The Academy is about 10k strong, and they are the ones who vote for the winners. While they are all involved in film to some point compared to the IMDb hacks - 10k is a large enough sample size that the same patterns will likely emerge. This is why 50% of the time in the past decade, the highest rating IMDb winner has won Best Picture (should be 60%).

The second last (out of nominees) winners is an interesting trend. As shown in the tables below, the years there has been a lower rated IMDb winner, there have been several high-rated films to compete with. My assumption, would be that the 10k Academy voters may be somewhat split between their favourite films yet a common theme would be that they like to throw in an Indie as their second or third choice (obviously they don't want to look too mainstream and vote for the top 3 most popular).

With Oppenheimer's odds being woeful and the fact that Poor Things is rated higher on IMDb, I'm taking a punt on that - and whatever is second last, once the nominations are in.

Best odds for Poor Things is 13.00 at neds.com.au

IMDb Rating and Best Picture Nominees

2022

FilmIMDb Rating
Everything Everywhere All at Once8.2
All Quiet on the Western Front7.8
Avatar: The Way of Water7.6
The Banshees of Inisherin7.7
Elvis7.3
The Fabelmans7.5
Tár7.4
Top Gun: Maverick8.3
Triangle of Sadness7.3
Women Talking7.3


2021

FilmIMDb Rating
CODA8.0
Belfast7.2
Don't Look Up7.2
Drive My Car7.5
Dune8.0
King Richard7.5
Licorice Pizza7.1
Nightmare Alley7.0
The Power of the Dog6.8
West Side Story7.1

2020

FilmIMDb Rating
Nomadland7.3
The Father8.2
Judas and the Black Messiah7.4
Mank6.8
Minari7.4
Promising Young Woman7.5
Sound of Metal7.7
The Trial of the Chicago 77.7

2019

FilmIMDb Rating
Parasite8.5
Ford v Ferrari8.1
The Irishman7.8
Jojo Rabbit7.9
Joker8.4
Little Women7.8
Marriage Story7.9
19178.2
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood7.6

2018

FilmIMDb Rating
Green Book8.2
Black Panther7.3
BlacKkKlansman7.5
Bohemian Rhapsody7.9
The Favourite7.5
Roma7.7
A Star Is Born7.6
Vice7.2

2017

FilmIMDb Rating
The Shape of Water7.3
Call Me by Your Name7.8
Darkest Hour7.4
Dunkirk7.8
Get Out7.8
Lady Bird7.4
Phantom Thread7.4
The Post7.2
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri8.1

2016

FilmIMDb Rating
Moonlight7.4
Arrival7.9
Fences7.2
Hacksaw Ridge8.1
Hell or High Water7.6
Hidden Figures7.8
La La Land8
Lion8
Manchester by the Sea7.8

2015

FilmIMDb Rating
Spotlight8.1
The Big Short7.8
Bridge of Spies7.6
Brooklyn7.5
Mad Max: Fury Road8.1
The Martian8
The Revenant8
Room8.1

2014

FilmIMDb Rating
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)7.7
American Sniper7.3
Boyhood7.9
The Grand Budapest Hotel8.1
The Imitation Game8
Selma7.5
The Theory of Everything7.7
Whiplash8.5

2013

FilmIMDb Rating
12 Years a Slave8.1
American Hustle7.2
Captain Phillips7.8
Dallas Buyers Club7.9
Gravity7.7
Her8
Nebraska7.7
Philomena7.6
The Wolf of Wall Street8.2

Academy Award for Best Actor Odds

Winning Actor
Best Odds Found
Cillian Murphy
(Oppenheimer)
Paul Giamatti
(The Holdovers)
3.50 at neds.com.au
Bradley Cooper
(Maestro)
11.00 at neds.com.au
Jeffrey Wright
(American Fiction)
Colman Domingo
(Rustin)
41.00 at neds.com.au

We compare the best odds for each actor across different betting sites.

Last updated 24/1/24

Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Cillian Murphy is the equal favourite to win the Oscar for Best Actor in 2023, for his role in Oppenheimer. Murphy has been commended for his role as physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer in one of the most popular films of 2023 - Oppenheimer is also the favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Best odds found for Cillian Murphy is 1.38 at palmerbet.com

Bradley Cooper is the other favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Actor in 2023 for his lead role in Maestro. Cooper also directed the film (which is likely to be a Best Picture nominee), and he himself is likely to the be a nominee for the Academy Award for Best Director, with being in the top 10 shortest odds for the award.

Best odds found for Bradley Cooper is 11.00 at neds.com.au

Academy Award for Best Actress Odds

Winning Actress
Best Odds Found
Emma Stone
(Poor Things)
2.00 at neds.com.au
Lily Gladstone
(Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Huller
(Anatomy of a Fall)
11.00 at palmerbet.com
Carey Mulligan
(Maestro)
17.00 at palmerbet.com
Anette Bening
(Nyad)
34.00 at neds.com.au

We compare the best odds for each actress across different betting sites.

Last updated 24/1/24

Who will win the Oscar for Best Actress?

Emma Stone is the favourite to take out the Academy Award for the Best Actress for her role in Poor Things. Emma Stone is no stranger to an Oscar, and has been nominated twice for Best Supporting Actress, and has won once for Best Actress. Poor Things is also our tip to win the Best Picture, so the Yorgos Lanthimos directed film may come home with multiple awards.

Best odds found for Emma Stone is 2.00 at neds.com.au

Lily Gladstone is a close second favourite to win the Oscar for Best Actress. In only her eleventh film to date, the 37 year old actress only made her acting debut in 2012, and has already gained the acknowledgement of Hollywood heavyweights, evident by being a lead cast in a Scorsese film, alongside Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro.

Best odds found for Lily Gladstone is 2.05 at topsport.com.au

Academy Award for Best Director Odds

Winning Director
Best Odds Found
Christopher Nolan
(Oppenheimer)
Justine Triet
(Anatomy of a Fall)
15.00 at palmerbet.com
Yorgos Lanthimos
(Poor Things)
17.00 at palmerbet.com
Martin Scorsese
(Killers of the Flower Moon)
21.00 at neds.com.au
Jonathon Glazer
(The Zone of Interest)
26.00 at neds.com.au

We compare the best odds for each film across different betting sites.

Last updated 24/1/24

Who will win the Oscar for Best Director?

Unsurprisingly, the favourites and odds to win the Academy Award for Best Director, are eerily similar for the Academy Awards Best Picture Odds.

Christopher Nolan is the favourite to win the Oscar for the Best Director for his film Oppenheimer. Each year, Nolan is further immersing himself as one of the greatest directors of all time. He is known to be very meticulous about his films, and tries to make everything look as authentic as possible, to avoid relying on CGI and post-production.

Best odds for Christopher Nolan is 1.03 at palmerbet.com

Speaking of greatest directors of all time - Martin Scorsese is the second favourite to take home the Director's top award, for his film Killers of the Flower Moon. Scorsese is probably the greatest living filmmaker, and is known for his passionate story telling and unique vision. It wouldn't be the first time he has taken home the Oscar (The Departed, 2007) - and as his films are always gold, you cannot rule him out.

Best odds for Martin Scorsese is 21.00 at neds.com.au

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FAQ

Where can I bet on the Academy Awards?

You can bet on the Academy Awards on any betting site on this page, including the following:

Some betting sites may offer more Oscar betting markets than others, but all of them will provide odds on Best Picture.

When are the Oscars?

The Academy Awards (or Oscars) will be held on Sunday March 10, 2024.

When are the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards?

On January 23 2024, the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards were announced, which shortlisted the entrants for all Academy Awards categories.