Academy Awards Odds 2024

Poor Things is a fantasy black-comedy directed by Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone. While the film had little commercial appeal, it is considered to be one of the most unique films in the past decade - which is usually a plus in the Academy's eyes.

However, that is just the icing on the cake. The very simple reason we are backing Poor Things, (especially at higher odds) is that is the highest IMDb rated film to be released this year. As shown in the table below, films with the highest IMDb rating for their respective year, have won the Academy Award for Best Picture 50% of the time in the past decade. Nearly all of the rest of the time, the film that won has had the second lowest IMDb rating out of their fellow nominees, but are generally a unique picture. Well, Poor Things ticks both these boxes.

Protagonist Emma Stone also has the lowest odds and is the favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Actress for starring in Poor Things. Stone has won this award previously with her lead role in La La Land (2016).

Best odds for Poor Things are 13.00 at neds.com.au

Key Findings

• Five times in the past 10 years (50%), has a film won Best Picture, that has had the highest IMDb rating of it's fellow nominees.
• Four times in the past 10 years (40%), has a film had the second lowest IMDb rating of its fellow nominees, and has won the Best Picture Academy Award.
• Once in the past 10 years, has a film not ranked in first or second last IMDb rating, won the Academy Award. And honestly, that year (2013) The Wolf of Wall Street was robbed.

Conclusion

You're probably aware that the IMDb rating is calculated by users voting for a film out of 10. Although there is some weighting involved so that certain demographics (e.g. teenagers), don't sway the votes due to more voters. And it's fair to say "what the heck does the general population know what's a good film".

Well, there is a reason all Oscar winners start off by thanking the Academy. The Academy is about 10k strong, and they are the ones who vote for the winners. While they are all involved in film to some point compared to the IMDb hacks - 10k is a large enough sample size that the same patterns will likely emerge. This is why 50% of the time in the past decade, the highest rating IMDb winner has won Best Picture (should be 60%).

The second last (out of nominees) winners is an interesting trend. As shown in the tables below, the years there has been a lower rated IMDb winner, there have been several high-rated films to compete with. My assumption, would be that the 10k Academy voters may be somewhat split between their favourite films yet a common theme would be that they like to throw in an Indie as their second or third choice (obviously they don't want to look too mainstream and vote for the top 3 most popular).

With Oppenheimer's odds being woeful and the fact that Poor Things is rated higher on IMDb, I'm taking a punt on that - and whatever is second last, once the nominations are in.

Best odds for Poor Things is 13.00 at neds.com.au

Cillian Murphy is the equal favourite to win the Oscar for Best Actor in 2023, for his role in Oppenheimer. Murphy has been commended for his role as physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer in one of the most popular films of 2023 - Oppenheimer is also the favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Best odds found for Cillian Murphy is 1.38 at palmerbet.com

Bradley Cooper is the other favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Actor in 2023 for his lead role in Maestro. Cooper also directed the film (which is likely to be a Best Picture nominee), and he himself is likely to the be a nominee for the Academy Award for Best Director, with being in the top 10 shortest odds for the award.

Best odds found for Bradley Cooper is 11.00 at neds.com.au

Emma Stone is the favourite to take out the Academy Award for the Best Actress for her role in Poor Things. Emma Stone is no stranger to an Oscar, and has been nominated twice for Best Supporting Actress, and has won once for Best Actress. Poor Things is also our tip to win the Best Picture, so the Yorgos Lanthimos directed film may come home with multiple awards.

Best odds found for Emma Stone is 2.00 at neds.com.au

Lily Gladstone is a close second favourite to win the Oscar for Best Actress. In only her eleventh film to date, the 37 year old actress only made her acting debut in 2012, and has already gained the acknowledgement of Hollywood heavyweights, evident by being a lead cast in a Scorsese film, alongside Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro.

Best odds found for Lily Gladstone is 2.05 at topsport.com.au

Unsurprisingly, the favourites and odds to win the Academy Award for Best Director, are eerily similar for the Academy Awards Best Picture Odds.

Christopher Nolan is the favourite to win the Oscar for the Best Director for his film Oppenheimer. Each year, Nolan is further immersing himself as one of the greatest directors of all time. He is known to be very meticulous about his films, and tries to make everything look as authentic as possible, to avoid relying on CGI and post-production.

Best odds for Christopher Nolan is 1.03 at palmerbet.com

Speaking of greatest directors of all time - Martin Scorsese is the second favourite to take home the Director's top award, for his film Killers of the Flower Moon. Scorsese is probably the greatest living filmmaker, and is known for his passionate story telling and unique vision. It wouldn't be the first time he has taken home the Oscar (The Departed, 2007) - and as his films are always gold, you cannot rule him out.

Best odds for Martin Scorsese is 21.00 at neds.com.au