What The UKGC Really Think About Prediction Market Platforms

The growing popularity of unregulated prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a sudden clamour for similar platforms in the UK.

They've broken into the mainstream across the Atlantic - due in part to some controversial markets on real-world events.

But sports betting is also hugely popular market on those platforms, particularly as they offer a unique alternative to tradtional sports betting.

For such platforms to legally operate in the UK, they need to gain a UKGC licence. And they've made their feelings very clear on regulating prediction market platforms.

While prediction markets are often marketed as a new concept, the UKGC doesn’t really see it that way.

UKGC Director of Strategy Brad Enright wrote in a recent blog post that prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket "would fall within the definition of a ‘Betting Intermediary’ under UK legislation".

Essentially, the UK regulator views most current prediction market models as fundamentally similar to betting exchanges - something the UK has had since around 2000. Platforms like Betfair have long allowed users to trade positions on outcomes rather than simply bet against the house.

Because of this, the UKGC’s position is fairly straightforward: if it looks like gambling and works like gambling, it will likely be regulated as gambling.

"If a prediction market operator was to launch here in Great Britain, we do not believe they would be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products," Enright added.

One of the key reasons prediction markets are gaining traction in the US is because of how its betting landscape has evolved.

Unlike the UK, where sports betting has long been legal and regulated nationwide, the US only began widespread legalisation after the Murphy v. NCAA ruling in 2018. Even now, regulation varies state by state.

That fragmented system has arguably created space for alternative models like prediction markets to emerge.

In contrast, the UK already has:

• A mature betting ecosystem
• Nationwide regulation
• Established exchange-based products

So the commercial “gap” that prediction markets fill in the US doesn’t really exist in the same way here.

The UKGC isn’t dismissing prediction markets - but it’s also not treating them as a regulatory loophole.

From its perspective:

• Most prediction markets resemble existing betting exchange models
• They would almost certainly require a gambling licence in Great Britain
• Attempts to classify them as non-gambling products are unlikely to succeed

At the same time, the regulator is keeping a close eye on global developments. As the gambling industry becomes increasingly international, new models will continue to emerge - and the UKGC has signalled it’s ready to respond.

For now, though, the message is simple: if prediction markets want to enter the UK, they’ll need to play by the same rules as everyone else.