Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jeff Lewis
Jacob Rodriguez Climbs Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds After Standout Debut
Defensive Rookie of the Year Winner Odds
The opening week of the NFL season exposed defensive weaknesses for several teams, while others stood out for their strong team efforts.
We saw Carolina’s defense struggle badly against Chicago, giving up 59 points in what became the highest scoring Week 1 game in NFL history. Green Bay's matchup also ended poorly, surrendering a 22 point fourth-quarter lead against Minnesota.
On the other end, San Francisco surprised the Rams by holding them to just seven points, while the Patriots and Seahawks played one of the more defensively driven games of the opening week.
Some of the most interesting individual defensive performances, however, came from this year’s rookie class. Miami Dolphins rookie Jacob Rodriguez was among the standouts, producing an impressive NFL debut despite Miami's loss to the Raiders.
With Week 1 now at an end, the Defensive Rookie of the Year market is already beginning to shift. Preseason favourite David Bailey remains at the top of the odds but has lost some early ground, while Rodriguez has made the biggest move up the board.
After entering the season with an 8% chance on Kalshi, Rodriguez has climbed 11 percentage points following his Week 1 performance, quickly establishing himself as one of the leading contenders for the award early in the season.
| Player | Position | Odds | Change In Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Bailey | DE | 20% | 🔴↓ 4 |
| Jacob Rodriguez | LB | 18% | 🟢↑ 11 |
| Caleb Downs | DB | 14% |
|
| Rueben Bain Jr. | LB | 11% | 🔴↓ 7 |
| Sonny Styles | LB | 11% |
|
| Arvell Reese | LB | 9% | 🔴↓ 5 |
Source: Kalshi, September 15, 2026 - $733,678 Volume - Settled After Outcome
Jacob Rodriguez Climbing the Rookie Defensive Player of the Year Odds
Jacob Rodriguez entered the season as more of an outside contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Before Week 1, Kalshi gave the linebacker just an 8% chance of winning the award, placing him behind players like David Bailey, Rueben Bain Jr., Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles.
In just one week, Rodriguez has pushed passed his initial predictions. The second-round pick finished his NFL debut with 14 total tackles, including five solo tackles and nine assists, the most tackles recorded by any Dolphins defender in the game. He was also one of only two Miami defenders to play every defensive snap.
Miami also placed a lot of responsibility on Rodriguez. He entered the game with the green dot and was tasked with relaying defensive play calls, making him the only rookie in the NFL to handle those responsibilities in Week 1. It's clear that Rodriguez has shown enough in training camp to have the dolphins trust him so early on in his career.
The Dolphins ultimately lost 27-13, but Rodriguez stood out as one of the better defensive players on the field, from a defense that spent a good portion of the game on the field.
Rodriguez has since climbed from 8% to 18% on Kalshi, an 11% increase that puts him among the leading contenders heading into Week 2.
The bigger question is whether he can sustain this level of play on a team that isn't expected to remain competitive this season. Recording 14 tackles every week is unlikely, but his role gives him an opportunity to remain productive. Rodriguez is already starting, playing essentially every defensive snap and calling plays for Miami, meaning opportunities should continue throughout the season.
If he can complement a high tackle total with more game-changing plays, like forced fumbles or interceptions, we can see him build a strong argument for winning the rookie award this season.
Benjamin has written about sports, betting odds and Canada’s iGaming industry since 2020. He closely follows major leagues and competitions, examining how player news, team performance and public expectations shape betting markets. His work also involves monitoring provincial regulations and sportsbook launches, while assessing betting sites based on their licensing, reliability and overall user experience.
