NFL Division Winner Odds - Bills Lead as Most Likely to Win Their Divisions

Baltimore enters the season as the clear favourite to win the AFC North at -150, although Cincinnati remains close enough at +175. Pittsburgh sits further back at +500, while Cleveland is considered increasingly unlikely to win at +2000.

The Ravens are expected to rebound after falling short last season, finishing the season at 8-9, second in the AFC North, and missing the playoffs.

Despite last year's record, expectations remain higher for Baltimore in this season. The Ravens are retaining a strong core led by Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, while former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter takes over as head coach. 

The defense has also been improved with the addition of Trey Hendrickson as Baltimore looks to improve a pass rush that recorded only 30 sacks last season. Although the effects of losing players like Tyler Linderbaum have yet to be seen.

Several preseason projections have the Ravens finishing the regular season with double digit wins, which helps explain why the odds have them as the AFC North favourite despite last season's losing record. Cincinnati, however, remains the main obstacle and should keep the division competitive throughout the season.

Houston enters the season as the favourite to win the AFC South at +110, with the AFC South expected to be much more competitive than some of the other divisions. Jacksonville sits at +230, Indianapolis sits at +375, and Tennessee remains the clear outsider at +850.

The Texans are returning off of a strong season in which they finished 12-5, although that was only good enough for second place in the AFC South. Houston still reached the playoffs as a Wild Card team, beating Pittsburgh before being eliminated by New England in the Divisional Round.

Expectations are higher this year due in part to Houston retaining one of the league’s strongest defenses. The Texans allowed just 277.2 yards per game last season, the lowest in the NFL, while also finishing second in points allowed. 

The biggest concern is whether C.J. Stroud and the offense can improve. His protection improved last season, with Stroud taking only 23 sacks after being sacked 90 times across his first two years, and the offensive line has once again undergone changes this year. Houston also added David Montgomery to the backfield, giving the offense an established running back to improve its running game.

Houston has a strong team behind it to justify entering as the AFC South favourites. However, the close odds on Jacksonville and Indianapolis suggest the division is far from a guarantee for the Texans.

Buffalo enters the season as the favourite to win the AFC East at -150, but New England sits close behind at +140. The Jets are much further back at +1800, with very low expectations for Miami at +4500.

The Bills finished 12-5 last season, finishing second place in the AFC East behind New England that went 14-3. Buffalo still made the playoffs, defeating Jacksonville in the Wild Card Round before losing 33-30 to Denver in the Divisional Round.

Expectations are high for Buffalo this season. Josh Allen continues to be one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the NFL, with a majority of last year's roster returning. The biggest change comes from the coaching staff, with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady replacing Sean McDermott as head coach.

Buffalo has also worked towards one of its biggest weaknesses from last season, acquiring DJ Moore to help provide Allen with more receiving options. With Khalil Shakir leading the Bills in receiving yards with only 719 yards last season, this should be a considerable help.

The Bills are a reasonable favourite, but New England's 14-win season and Super Bowl appearance last year make them the clearest challenge to Buffalo's position at the top of the market. 

Kansas City enters the season as slight favourites to win at +170, but there is very little separating the Chiefs from the Chargers at +185 and Broncos at +210. Las Vegas is the only clear outsider at +2000, making the AFC West one of the more competitive divisions entering the season.

The Chiefs are looking to rebound from a 6-11 season in 2025, their worst record of the Andy Reid era. Kansas City finished third in the AFC West and missed the playoffs, ending a run of nine consecutive division titles. Patrick Mahomes also suffered a knee injury in Week 15, of which he is still recovering.

Expectations still remain high largely because of Mahomes and Reid. Although Mahomes will likely miss the first week, he is expected to return early in the season. Eric Bieniemy has also returned as offensive coordinator after previously overseeing some of the most productive offenses of Mahomes' career.

The biggest reason Kansas City is not a stronger favourite is the quality of the the other teams around them. Denver went 14-3 and won the AFC West last season, while the Chargers finished 11-6. Denver has since added Jaylen Waddle to an already strong roster, giving the reigning division champions another reason to remain in contention.

Kansas City's track record makes it understandable why the Chiefs remain at the top of the market, but the odds suggest little margin for error. With the Chargers and Broncos both priced within +40 of Kansas City, the AFC West looks like a genuine three team race.

Detroit enters the season as the favourite to win the NFC North at +160, but this is one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL. Green Bay sits at +240, followed by Chicago at +320 and Minnesota at +475, leaving all four teams with realistic chances of competing for first place.

The Lions are looking to improve upon a 9-8 season, where they fell from division champions the year before to last place in the NFC North. 

Despite finishing fourth, Detroit still remained one of the league's highest scoring teams. This is reflected in this year's expectations, where most of the optimism surrounding Detroit comes from the strength of its offense. Jared Goff will continue to have Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs, while Gibbs is expected to take on an even larger role after David Montgomery was traded during the offseason. 

Detroit has also made rebuilding the offensive line a priority, as it stood as one of the team's biggest weakness last season. The Lions drafted Blake Miller in the first round and added Cade Mays at center in an effort to give Goff better protection and reopen running lanes for Gibbs.

However, Detroit has less separation from divisional rivals than most division favourites. Chicago won the NFC North at 11-6 last season, Green Bay finished 9-7-1 and Minnesota went 9-8, meaning the Lions will have little room for anothe inconsistent season.

Tampa Bay enters the season as the favourite to win the NFC South at +175, although the odds suggest a fairly open division. New Orleans sits at +260, followed by Atlanta and Carolina at +350.

The Buccaneers finished 8-9 last season, ending the year tied with Carolina and Atlanta but missing the playoffs as the Panthers claimed the NFC South. It was a disappointing finish for Tampa Bay that had won the division in each of the previous four seasons.

Tampa Bay's season record was particularly frustrating after starting with 6-2. Injuries contributed to a difficult second half and Baker Mayfield finished with fewer than 4,000 passing yards for the first time since 2022. 

The Buccaneers still enter this season with one of the most experienced rosters in the division and remain built around Mayfield at quarterback. One of Tampa Bay's priorities has been improving a defense that struggled last season. The Buccaneers used the 15th overall pick on edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and continued adding defensive talent throughout the draft. 

However, with the Saints and Falcons both priced below +400 and defending champion, Carolina, still part of the race, the NFC South appears competitive.

The Eagles enter the season as the favourites to win the NFC East at +125, with the Cowboys close behind at +175, making this another division that will likely be decided by two teams. The Giants and Commanders are both priced at +550, leaving a noticeable gap between them.

The Eagles finished 11-6 last season and won the NFC East, becoming the first team in more than 20 years to win the division in consecutive seasons. However, their postseason run was cut short, with Philadelphia losing 23-19 to San Francisco in the Wild Card Round.

Expectations remain high for the eagles this year, as the team still has one of the most complete rosters in the NFC East. The defense allowed only 19.1 points per game last season, fifth-best in the NFL, with Vic Fangio remaining as defensive coordinator. The Eagles have also added Jonathan Greenard to strengthen the pass rush alongside Jalen Carter.

Concerns remain with the consistency of the Eagle's offense, which has regressed compared to previous seasons. Philadelphia finished only 19th in scoring and the offensive line remains a potential liability as veterans Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson get older and deal with injury concerns.

Even with those concerns, the Eagle's divisional success and strong defense continue to place the team as likely favourites. Dallas is expected to be the main challenger at +175, while the odds for New York and Washington suggest the market expects the NFC East to be decided primarily between the Eagles and Cowboys.

Los Angeles enters the season as the favourite to win the NFC West at -110, giving the Rams a clearer edge than most of the division favourites across the league. Seattle is the closest challenger at +220, followed by San Francisco at +300, while Arizona stands as the least likely team to win its division in the entire league at +10000.

The Rams are coming off a 12-5 season, finishing second in the NFC West behind Seattle despite being the highest scoring team in the league at 518 points. Los Angeles went on to beat Carolina and Chicago in the playoffs before losing 31-27 to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.

Expectations are even higher for Los Angeles this year. The team has strengthened an already competitive roster, adding Myles Garrett to a defense that already featured a productive pass rush and Matthew Stafford will return after winning MVP last season.

However, the Seahawks should not be overlooked after going 14-3 and winning the Super Bowl last season. In addition, the 49ers also finished 12-5 despite dealing with significant injuries. With three teams having won at least 12 games last season, the NFC West is stronger than the Rams' -110 price might suggest.

Even so, the Rams offseason additions will likely improve on an already strong team, which likely explains their spot as the current favourites. Seattle and San Francisco remain likely challengers, but Arizona's +10000 price leaves the NFC West completely up to three teams.