Canada chases crucial first win against Qatar - Markets point to Les Rouges

In the Group B standings for the 2026 World Cup, all four teams are currently tied on one point, with each matchup so far ending in a draw. With only two games left to secure advancement to the knockout stage, Canada may need to take all three points against Qatar before facing the biggest threat in the group, Switzerland.

Across Canada, sportsbooks like Bet365 have priced Canada as clear favourites for the upcoming game. Bet365 currently has Canada with odds of -350, giving them an implied probability of 77.8%.

On the other side, Qatar is priced as a clear underdog with odds of +900, and an implied probability of 10%.

Although odds were priced in Canada's favour for their opening match against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the team still managed to secure their first point in the World Cup with a Draw.

Canada performed fairly well in their first World Cup match as a host nation, with Cyle Larin equalizing in the 78th minute. They also had a late opportunity to take all three points, only for Tarik Muharemović to make a crucial block and deny the win.

Overall, Canada created more shots, passed the ball more effectively, and registered more touches in the opponent’s box. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina were more efficient with their chances, producing more shots on target despite having fewer total attempts. The contrast made Canada’s lack of finishing one of the clearer concerns from the match.

Another issue for Les Rouges was their difficulty breaking down a physical defensive setup. While Canada controlled large stretches of the game, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s low block frustrated their attacking rhythm and raised questions about how the team will handle stronger defensive sides later in the tournament. 

Moving forward, Canada will need to be sharper in front of the goal and more composed when attacking defenses. 

The draw still gives them something to build on, but missed chances in their upcoming match against Qatar could become costly as the group stage progresses. 

One of the biggest concerns for Canada right now is the continued absence of Alphonso Davies. The Canadian star has been sidelined with a hamstring injury suffered during Bayern Munich’s Champions League semi-final, and there has been little clarity around when he might be available again.

Davies’ absence has been significant thus far. Known for his world-class pace, explosive dribbling, and ability to cover ground on both ends of the pitch, he remains one of the best left backs in the tournament when fully fit. Without him, Canada has had a harder time neutralizing counterattacks, while also missing the transition threat he provides down the left side.

As we approach the second group stage match against Qatar, it's looking more and more like Davies will be unavailable again. 

The good news is Canada is likely able to scrape by without their star player, especially if they are sharper in front of goal than they were against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

However, Davies' availability will become much more important ahead of their final group stage match against Switzerland. If Canada fails to secure three points against Qatar, their position to advance to the elimination stages of the World Cup will be much more uncertain.