Can Djokovic secure one last title at Wimbledon - Markets point to Jannik Sinner as favourite

With Wimbledon 2026 set to begin at the end of June, the health concerns Sinner experienced during the French Open have led tennis fans to question whether they could affect his performance. 

Betting sites across Canada, including Pinnacle, have placed Jannik Sinner as the most likely to win Wimbledon 2026 in futures markets. Pinnacle currently has Sinner with odds of -218, giving him an implied probability of 68.6%.

Other likely candidates to win are as expected, with Novak Djokovic in second with a 22.8% chance, and Alexander Zverev in third with a 11.9% chance.

During the 2026 French Open, Jannik Sinner faced an unforeseen loss against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the second round at Roland-Garros. 

Sinner pointed towards a severe drop in energy during the match, as well as severe cramping that affected his performance around the third set. 

Since then, Sinner has had medical checks and evaluations which has found no underlying issues, instead pointing to cumulative fatigue that could be addressed with rest and other preemptive measures. 

Now having been officially cleared, we are expected to see Sinner return at the Giorgio Armani Tennis Classic on June 23rd before the start of Wimbledon the following week.

With Djokovic viewed as the main threat to Sinner’s Wimbledon defence, much of the discussion has centred on whether grass can narrow the gap between the two players.

Sinner had the upper hand in their most recent Wimbledon meeting, beating Djokovic in straight sets in last year’s semi-final. Since then, Djokovic has shown he can still push Sinner to the limit, winning their Australian Open semi-final in five sets. 

When it comes to surfaces, Djokovic remains one of the greatest grass-court players in tennis history, with seven Wimbledon titles and a 85% career win rate on grass that reflects his long standing dominance. Sinner, meanwhile, has also grown into a serious threat on the surface, with last year’s Wimbledon title confirming that his game now translates at the highest level.

Considering Djokovic's abilities on grass, why is the surface relevant in term's of Sinner's potential success?

One of the main concerns around Sinner is endurance, especially if he is forced into longer rallies and extended baseline exchanges. Grass could reduce that pressure. The surface generally rewards shorter points, aggressive serving, and quicker first-strike tennis, rather than long defensive rallies.

That's not to say it removes Djokovic’s as a threat. His return game, court positioning, and experience at Wimbledon make him dangerous regardless of the matchup. But if Sinner serves well and keeps points short, grass may help him protect his physical reserves. 

We still don't know whether Sinner has fully overcome the issues behind his recent bouts of exhaustion, but if there is one surface that should work in his favour, it is grass.