July Oscar Outlook - The Odyssey Could Earn 11+ Nominations
The Odyssey Leads the Early Oscar Conversation
Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has already captured the attention of audiences worldwide, earning more than $639 million through its second weekend in theatres. It joins a strong class of 2026 films that includes Obsession and Backrooms, which recently became A24’s highest-grossing film.
However, few releases have generated the level of Oscars speculation as The Odyssey. Prediction markets currently rank the film among the leading contenders across more than 11 nomination categories, ranging from Best Picture to Best Supporting Actress. Kalshi traders also give it a 48% chance of winning Best Picture, well ahead of its closest competitors.
With other acclaimed films such as Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary also expected to compete, next year’s Oscars will have no shortage of serious contenders. Even so, The Odyssey has emerged as the early film to beat, and could be on course to tie or surpass the record for the most nominations received by a single movie.
Best Picture Nomination Outlook
The Best Picture race is already beginning to centre around three standout films released in 2026: The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three.
Prediction markets also rank The Black Ball, Wild Horse Nine, and Fjord among the leading nomination contenders. However, none has generated the same level of mainstream attention or broader cultural conversation as The Odyssey.
Yet-to-be-released films such as Avengers: Doomsday have also appeared in these markets, leaving plenty of time for upcoming blockbusters to reshape the rankings with more than eight months remaining before the Oscars.
| Nominees | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 97% | Kalshi |
| Project Hail Mary | 92% | Kalshi |
| Dune: Part Three | 82% | Kalshi |
| The Black Ball | 80% | Kalshi |
| Wilde Horse Nine | 79% | Kalshi |
| Fjord | 64% | Kalshi |
| The Debut | 58% | Kalshi |
| Obsession | 47% | Kalshi |
| Behemoth | 46% | Kalshi |
| The Invite | 41% | Kalshi |
Best Director Nomination Outlook
Another category in which The Odyssey stands well ahead of the competition is Best Director. Christopher Nolan currently holds a 94% chance of earning a nomination at the 2027 Oscars, making him one of the film’s strongest projected nominees.
Other directors near the top of the market include Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three and Javier Calvo for The Black Ball.
| Nominees | Film | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Nolan | The Odyssey | 93% | Kalshi |
| Denis Villeneuve | Dune: Part Three | 74% | Kalshi |
| Javier Calvo | The Black Ball | 68% | Kalshi |
| Cristian Mungiu | Fjord | 56% | Kalshi |
| Martin McDonagh | Wilde Horse Nine | 54% | Kalshi |
| Olivia Wilde | The Invite | 41% | Kalshi |
| Tony Gilroy | Behemoth! | 34% | Kalshi |
| David Fincher | The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 25% | Kalshi |
| Phil Lord | Project Hail Mary | 24% | Kalshi |
| Danny Boyle | Ink | 22% | Kalshi |
Best Actor Nomination Outlook
Prediction markets for the 2027 Best Actor nominations are beginning to shift toward Matt Damon for his performance as Odysseus in The Odyssey. His leading competition currently includes Tom Cruise as Digger Rockwell in the upcoming film Digger, along with John Malkovich as Chris in Wild Horse Nine.
The year has already delivered several highly acclaimed performances, creating an increasingly competitive Best Actor race. Even Ryan Gosling’s widely praised performance in Project Hail Mary has recently begun to fall in the market rankings.
| Nominees | Film | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Damon | The Odyssey | 89% | Kalshi |
| Tom Cruise | Digger | 76% | Kalshi |
| John Malkovich | Wild Horse Nine | 73% | Kalshi |
| Ryan Gosling | Project Hail Mary | 63% | Kalshi |
| Andrew Scott | Pressure | 45% | Kalshi |
| Pedro Pascal | The Madolorian & Grogu | 45% | Kalshi |
| Sebastian Stan | Fjord | 42% | Kalshi |
| Robert Aramayo | I Swear | 33% | Kalshi |
| Timothée Chalamet | Dune: Part Three | 33% | Kalshi |
Best Actress Nomination Outlook
Prediction markets for the 2027 Best Actress nominations have been less favourable toward The Odyssey. Julianne Moore currently stands out for her performance as Mona Friedman in A24’s upcoming film The Debut.
Other candidates ranked ahead of Anne Hathaway include Inde Navarrette for her breakout performance as Nikki in Obsession, Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve as Lisbet Gheorghiu in Fjord, and Sandra Hüller for her role in Rose.
Hathaway remains present in the Best Actress markets for The Odyssey. However, traders have yet to show the same confidence in her nomination chances as they have for the category’s current frontrunners.
| Nominees | Film | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julianne Moore | The Debut | 67% | Kalshi |
| Inde Navarrette | Obsession | 67% | Kalshi |
| Renate Reinsve | Fjord | 52% | Kalshi |
| Sandra Hüller | Rose | 49% | Kalshi |
| Anne Hathaway | The Odyssey | 28% | Kalshi |
| Mikey Madison | The Social Reckoning | 27% | Kalshi |
| Penélope Cruz | The Invite | 25% | Kalshi |
| Ruth madeley | Being Heumann | 25% | Kalshi |
| Cynthia Erivo | Prima Facie | 24% | Kalshi |
| Daisy Edgar-Jones | Sense and Sensibility | 23% | Kalshi |
Best Supporting Actor Nomination Outlook
The Best Supporting Actor market is especially close, with three candidates emerging as the early frontrunners. Among them is John Leguizamo, who could earn the first Oscar nomination of his career for his performance as Eumaeus in The Odyssey. He is currently tied with Paul Giamatti for his upcoming role in The Statement.
He currently faces strong competition from Sam Rockwell for his role as the Man from the Future in Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, along with John Goodman for his performance in Digger.
| Nominees | Film | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Giamatti | The Statement | 60% | Kalshi |
| John Leguizamo | The Odyssey | 60% | Kalshi |
| Sam Rockwell | Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die | 59% | Kalshi |
| John Goodman | Digger | 56% | Kalshi |
| Jeremy Strong | The Social Reckoning | 38% | Kalshi |
| Robert Pattinson | Hamlet | 31% | Kalshi |
| Riz Ahmed | Michael | 30% | Kalshi |
| Colman Domingo | The Odyssey | 22% | Kalshi |
| Himesh Patel | Josephine | 21% | Kalshi |
| Miles Teller | Paper Tiger | 20% | Kalshi |
Best Supporting Actress Nomination Outlook
The Best Supporting Actress market appears more decisive, with Anne Hathaway holding an 83% chance of earning a nomination for her performance as Verity Crawford in Verity.
Other leading candidates include Penélope Cruz in The Bride!, Samantha Morton for her role in The Odyssey, and Mariana di Girolamo for her performance in Wild Horse Nine.
| Nominees | Film | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hathaway | Verity | 83% | Kalshi |
| Penélope Cruz | The Bride! | 67% | Kalshi |
| Samantha Morton | The Odyssey | 58% | Kalshi |
| Mariana di Girolamo | Wild Horse Nine | 57% | Kalshi |
| Parker Posey | Wild Horse Nine | 42% | Kalshi |
| Sandra Hüller | Digger | 34% | Kalshi |
| Tao Okamoto | All of a Sudden | 29% | Kalshi |
| Inde Navarrette | Obsession | 23% | Kalshi |
| Betty Gilpin | The Social Reckoning | 24% | Kalshi |
| Gemma Chan | Josephine | 16% | Kalshi |
Benjamin has written about sports, betting odds and Canada’s iGaming industry since 2020. He closely follows major leagues and competitions, examining how player news, team performance and public expectations shape betting markets. His work also involves monitoring provincial regulations and sportsbook launches, while assessing betting sites based on their licensing, reliability and overall user experience.
