Photo Credit: AP Photo/Adam Bettcher
Kyler Murray Could Challenge Mahomes In Comeback Player of the Year Odds
Comeback Player of the Year Odds
The Comeback Player of the Year award is presented annually by the Associated Press (AP) to a player who returns to a high level of performance after overcoming significant adversity, most commonly a serious injury.
This season, several of the NFL’s biggest names fit that description. Players such as New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers, whose performance can significantly impact his team’s success, suffered major injuries last year but now have an opportunity to re-establish themselves among the league’s best.
With the NFL season set to begin Wednesday, with the Patriots facing the Seahawks, early Comeback Player of the Year markets have Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray emerging as the two leading candidates.
Mahomes will naturally receive plenty of attention after suffering a torn ACL near the end of last year’s regular season. As arguably the NFL’s best quarterback of the past decade, a return to form would put him at the front of the award conversation, especially with Kansas City missing the playoffs for the first time in years. These circumstances make sense as to why Mahomes is a clear early favourite, with current prediction markets giving him a 38% chance of winning the award.
However, the more interesting storyline may belong to the player sitting just behind him, Kyler Murray.
Murray’s case goes beyond simply returning from injury. After his 2025 season ended with a foot injury, the former Pro Bowl quarterback also enters this year looking to rebuild his reputation after several underwhelming seasons in Arizona.
In recent years, Murray has gradually fallen out of discussions surrounding the NFL’s top quarterbacks as the Cardinals struggled to return to the postseason. Now, with a fresh start in Minnesota, he has an opportunity to prove he can still perform at a highest level while leading a team with legitimate playoff aspirations.
If there is one player whose 2026 season could truly represent a comeback, Murray may have one of the strongest cases.
| Player | Position | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | Chiefs | 38% |
| Kyler Murray | QB | Vikings | 12% |
| Aaron Donald | DT | Rams | 8% |
| Daniel Jones | QB | Colts | 7% |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | Packers | 7% |
Source: Kalshi, September 8, 2026 - $833,741 Volume - Settled After Outcome
Kyler Murray Odds To Win Comeback Player of the Year
Kyler Murray’s final season with the Arizona Cardinals ended in Week 5 after a foot injury sidelined him for the remainder of the year. Arizona was not entering the season with particularly high expectations either, having struggled to return to the postseason since its Wild Card appearance in 2021.
Murray has already gone through one major comeback during his career. In 2023, he returned from a torn ACL and played eight games for Arizona, finishing the season with an 89.4 passer rating. His return was admirable, but it was not enough to put him among the league’s top quarterbacks or make him a serious Comeback Player of the Year contender.
His situation at the time also worked against him. Arizona finished the 2023 season with the NFL’s second-worst scoring defense, allowing 455 points. James Conner provided consistent production out of the backfield, but the Cardinals did not have the same level of offensive talent surrounding Murray that many of the league’s top quarterbacks enjoyed.
His circumstances are much different now in Minnesota. Murray joins a Vikings offense headlined by Justin Jefferson, giving him one of the NFL’s best receiving weapons. Minnesota also finished last season with one of the league’s better defenses, allowing just 333 points, which should give Murray more support than he had during his final years in Arizona.
This should give Murray a realistic opportunity to prove he can still be considered one of the NFL’s better quarterbacks while also building a compelling Comeback Player of the Year case. If he can improve Minnesota’s record from last season and lead the Vikings back to the playoffs, he would have one of the strongest narratives of any player competing for the award.
Benjamin has written about sports, betting odds and Canada’s iGaming industry since 2020. He closely follows major leagues and competitions, examining how player news, team performance and public expectations shape betting markets. His work also involves monitoring provincial regulations and sportsbook launches, while assessing betting sites based on their licensing, reliability and overall user experience.
