Will Gas Prices Rise To An All Time High - Markets Suggest It's Possible
Global Gas Shortages Due To Geopolitical Tensions
Gasoline prices have been affected by several major global events over the past four years, beginning with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The renewed conflict between the United States and Iran has also placed further pressure on fuel prices, pushing the U.S. national average to approximately $4.01 per gallon. Canadian drivers are also feeling the effects, with the national average reaching 172.9¢ per litre.
Optimism briefly grew around the possibility of a ceasefire, but tensions quickly escalated again. The United States resumed military strikes after Iranian missile and drone attacks killed American service members stationed in Jordan.
The conflict has severely disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route that ordinarily handles around 20% of the world’s oil supply. These disruptions have created further strain on an energy market already affected by the continuing Russia–Ukraine war.
Record Breaking Gas Prices In The US
With gas prices continuing to climb across the United States, speculation over where the national average could finish the year has become an increasingly common topic of discussion.
Current market odds show growing consensus that prices could exceed $4.60 per gallon, with some projections suggesting they may even surpass the record national average of $5.02 set in 2022.
Strategic oil reserves may provide temporary relief, but they are unlikely to serve as a long-term solution. With fuel demand also capable of rising during the colder months, the conditions pushing prices upward could realistically take the national average toward those levels.
Gas prices have already climbed as high as $4.46 per gallon in May before falling by approximately $0.46, partly due to the temporary ceasefire in effect at the time. Ultimately, whether prices return to those levels, or climb even higher, will remain closely tied to developments in the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Growing Concensus To Increase In Price of Gasoline
As mentioned, markets currently point toward the national average price of gasoline increasing by the end of the year. Approximately 46% of market participants expect prices to rise above $4.60 per gallon, while as many as 30% believe it could surpass $5.00.
These figures are purely speculative and should not be treated as firm forecasts. However, they provide an interesting look at how those participating in these markets expect gasoline prices to develop over the coming months.
Price Per Gallon | Odds | Platform |
|---|---|---|
| Above $4.60 | 46% | Kalshi |
| Above $4.80 | 42% | Kalshi |
| Above $5.00 | 30% | Kalshi |
| Above $5.20 | 21% | Kalshi |
| Above $5.40 | 18% | Kalshi |
| Above $5.60 | 16% | Kalshi |
Source: Kalshi, July 20, 2026 - $1,190,093 Volume - Settled December 31, 2026
Benjamin has written about sports, betting odds and Canada’s iGaming industry since 2020. He closely follows major leagues and competitions, examining how player news, team performance and public expectations shape betting markets. His work also involves monitoring provincial regulations and sportsbook launches, while assessing betting sites based on their licensing, reliability and overall user experience.
