Prediction markets in Canada - A look at the current landscape
Are Prediction Markets Like Kalshi or Polymarket Legal?
Most prediction markets are illegal in Canada, particularly when they use short-term yes/no contracts that resemble binary options. This has been the case since December 2017, with participating members of the Canadian Security Administrator introducing Multilateral Instrument 91-102, referred to as the Binary Options Rule. The rule has prohibited companies from advertising, offering, or selling binary options with individuals when the contract has a term of less than 30 days.
This rule was largely introduced due to the fraudulent activities practiced by offshore prediction markets at the time. These platforms promoted quick, high-yield returns to users. Regulators warned that these platforms controlled the odds or reference value behind the trades. In more serious cases, these platforms were simply designed to take money from users without any real trading taking place.
This has not stopped prediction markets from attempting to enter the Canadian market. With the growing popularity in the U.S., platforms like Polymarket became accessible to some users in Canada. In April of 2025, the Ontario Securities Council reached a settlement with the operators of Polymarket over allegations that Ontario users were offered event-based binary contracts.
With regulators pushing back, prediction markets have become harder to access for Canadians. Canadian securities regulators continue to treat most prediction markets as unauthorized offerings. However, recent guidance from CIRO and CSA suggest there may be a narrow path for certain event contracts in Canada.
Limited Expansion of Prediction Markets
As of March 2026, CIRO opened a path for certain regulated event contracts in Canada. Interactive Brokers and Wealthsimple were approved to facilitate access to these yes/no prediction-style markets, but only under strict limitations. These contracts are limited to economic forecasts, environmental forecasts, and financial indicators. Other limitations also require these contracts to settle with a term of at least 30 days.
As of now, approved dealers cannot offer contracts tied to elections, political events, sports outcomes, or unlawful activities. This means Canada's recent shift does not necessarily legalize prediction markets in the broad sense, but it does create a limited pathway for financial-style prediction markets.
