Top 5 Prospects in the 2027 NFL No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Source: Kalshi, September 30, 2026 - $398,755 Volume - Settled After Outcome

Jeremiah Smith is the only non-quarterback currently sitting near the top of the market, which speaks to how highly he is regarded as an NFL prospect.

Through four games this season, he has recorded 617 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, including an outstanding performance against Illinois in which he caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns.

From an NFL perspective, Smith has a lot of the traits teams look for in a true WR1. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he has the combination of size, route running execution, and the ability to catch when contested. His time at Ohio State has proven that he can take over games, even when defenses know he is the primary target.

The biggest obstacle to Smith going first overall may simply be his position. Quarterbacks tend to dominate the top of the NFL Draft, especially when teams picking early are looking for a long-term starter. Smith will need to establish himself as a receiver prospect teams can't overlook in order to overcome the value attached to quarterbacks.

Arch Manning has been one of the biggest names in college football and is the current leading quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft conversation.

Manning has helped the Longhorns start 4-0, although his individual performances have been somewhat inconsistent. 

In their win against Tennessee, Manning completed 14 of 19 passes for 201 yards but was unable to throw a touchdown and was intercepted once. Following this game, his Heisman odds moved from +800 before the season to +2500, which goes to show how important each game will be this season for these prospects.

Manning's NFL appeal remains centered around his ability of making throws to every level of the field, while also extending plays and running the ball under pressure.

The question for the rest of the season will be whether or not he can become more consistent when the Longhorns face stronger teams. Manning has all the right traits of a top NFL quarterback prospect, but teams will likely want to see how he adapts his decision making under pressure and will want to see more consistent production before confidently seeing him as clear number 1 overall option.

CJ Carr is another quarterback that's gained confidence as a first overall prospect, helping lead an undefeated Notre Dame team this season.

Carr has been a main contributor to the Fighting Irish opening the season at 4-0. In his most recent game, he completed 14 of 22 passes for 237 yards and three touchdowns in the team's 49-10 win over Purdue, while also running the ball for a touchdown.

Carr generally operates well within structure and has shown that he can move an offense without needing to consistently create outside the pocket. His efficiency and composure with the ball has been a major part of the Fighting Irish's success this season. In addition, his playing style will likely translate well in the NFL, where processing things quickly and accuracy are needed. 

However, Carr still has less starting experience than other quarterback prospects. The rest of the season will be crucial in showing how he responds to pressure, difficult road environments and stronger defenses.

Darian Mensah has seen the biggest shift in his outlook as a number one overall prospect, after his transfer from Duke to Miami.

Mensah has taken well to the Hurricanes and has done a great job of leading the offense. Miami has started 4-0 and through his first three games, Mensah has completed close to 90% of his passes for 873 yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions.

His accuracy has been impressive. Mensah completed 35 consecutive passes across two games earlier this season, coming within one completion of the FBS record.

For NFL teams, Mensah has showcased he can efficiently operate in a passing heavy offense. However, we have yet to see how consistent his game is, especially against the stronger teams on Miami's schedule.

Drew Mestemaker is the least established name among the five prospects, but his rise has been one of the more interesting developments in the 2027 draft class.

Mestemaker transferred to Oklahoma State after a breakout season at North Texas and has made an impact with his new team. His biggest performance so far came against #6 Oregon, where Oklahoma State pulled off a 39-31 upset, ending a 21-game losing streak against FBS opponents.

Mestemaker's main appeal is his ability as a dual threat quarterback. He initially gained recognition for his passing game at North Texas, but has also developed a running game that has helped the offense in Oklahoma.

From an NFL standpoint, Mestemaker is probably the biggest projection among the five current leaders. He has less experience than Manning or Mensah and will need to prove himself more than other candidates on this list.