Photo Credit: AP Photo/Andy Kropa
VMA Song of the Year Odds - BTS Favoured To Win for the First Time
MTV VMA Song of the Year Odds
The competition for this year’s Song of the Year at the VMAs is packed with notable hits, including Ella Langley’s Choosin’ Texas and Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter’s collaboration, Bring Your Love.
With markets beginning to even out ahead of the MTV Video Music Awards on September 27, BTS remains the clear leader with their globally popular track Swim.
For BTS supporters, a win would give the group its first MTV Song of the Year award, adding another major achievement to its success in the U.S. music scene.
| Artist | Song | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTS | Swim | 63% |
| Ella Langley | Choosin' Texas | 20% |
| Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter | Bring Your Love | 15% |
| HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI | Golden | 2% |
Source: Kalshi, September 21, 2026 - $90,260 Volume - Settled September 27
BTS Song of the Year Odds
BTS is the clear leader in the VMA Song of the Year odds, with Swim currently sitting around 61% in the market. BTS sits well ahead of the remaining nominees with less than a week to go before the awards.
The song has done well in the United States. Swim debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, as BTS's seventh song to reach the top of the chart. In its opening week, Swim generated 15.3 million streams with 154,000 combined digital and physical sales. It remained on the Hot 100 for 17 weeks, while also becoming one of 2026's biggest global hits.
With the Song of the Year award decided through public voting, BTS's favourites makes sense considering the fan base behind them. After 13 years as a group, BTS has built one of the largest followings in music.
The level of support behind them does not guarantee a win, especially with VMA voting centred on U.S. audiences, but it remains a strong factor working in BTS's favour.
Ella Langley Song of the Year Odds
Ella Langley's Choosin' Texas currently sits around 21% in the Song of the Year market, making it the strongest challenger to BTS despite the gap between the two.
Choosin' Texas spent 22 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, tying the all time record held by Mariah Carey's All I Want for Christmas Is You. It had already become the longest-running No. 1 for a non-holiday song earlier in September after passing the 19-week runs of Old Town Road and A Bar Song (Tipsy).
Although Langley is far from matching the global success of BTS, within the United States, she has gained better leverage on the domestic popularity front. The song has also been at the front of pop culture in the US, with Drake and Don Toliver releasing a new remix of the song in September.
Whether the song's success translates into the fan voting needed to overcome BTS will remain the biggest obstacle to winning the award. While markets still favour Swim by a large margin, Choosin' Texas enters the final week with the strongest U.S. chart statistics of any song nominated.
Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter Song of the Year Odds
Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter's Bring Your Love remains further back in the market, currently sitting around 12%, although odds continue to move around as we near the VMAs.
Its U.S. chart performance has been more modest than either Swim or Choosin' Texas. Their collaboration debuted at No. 74 on the Billboard Hot 100, generating 4.1 million U.S. streams and 3,000 sales during its opening week. The song nevertheless stood out as Madonna's highest debut on the chart since 2012.
What makes Bring Your Love interesting is Madonna's history and presence around this year's VMAs. She leads all artists with 11 nominations and has been announced as the show's opening performer, making it her first VMA performance in over 23 years.
Madonna's status might not significantly increase Bring Your Love's voting total, but it does give her more visibility ahead and during the ceremony. In addition to Sabrina Carpenter's own VMA presence, the collaboration provides these two with the necessary fan backing to realistically compete for the award this year.
Benjamin has written about sports, betting odds and Canada’s iGaming industry since 2020. He closely follows major leagues and competitions, examining how player news, team performance and public expectations shape betting markets. His work also involves monitoring provincial regulations and sportsbook launches, while assessing betting sites based on their licensing, reliability and overall user experience.
